It will start off quite sunny this morning, although high thin cloud will be increasing throughout the day today. It wont be full out cloudiness, rather a more filtered sunshine/mix of sun and cloud. Temperatures will be very pleasant thanks to a nice southerly flow of air. Despite a bit of cloudiness, I think most areas will reach or exceed the freezing mark today, especially over bare ground where there is little to no snow cover. Areas in the eastern RRV may have a bit of trouble exceeding zero thanks to snow cover, although there is still a chance. Here's what I'm predicting for today from east to west:
Steinbach 0 to 2°C
Winnipeg 0 to 2°C
Western RRV 2 to 6°C in general
Brandon 0 to 2°C
Winds will be relatively light from the south at around 20 km/h. That continued wind and cloud cover overnight will allow for warm overnight lows around -5°C in Winnipeg.
The rest of the week remains quite uncertain. Tomorrow and Tuesday specifically are very uncertain still at this point as a more organised system from the states moves north into NW Ontario. Models are bouncing around with scenarios, and there are some big differences among them as well. What is clear though is that it will be an unsettled week, with cooler temperatures beginning late-week.
Personally, I am leaning towards more of a grazing-type situation, where snow will just graze southeast Manitoba with a few cm. Another area of snow from the west could give southern Manitoba periods of light snow Monday night and Tuesday with 1-3 cm. There is great uncertainty at this point, so stay tuned for the latest updates as the situation gets clearer.
Below: Here's how much precipitation two different models are predicting for Monday and Tuesday. As you can see, the two are giving very different solutions showing the great differences that lie:
|GEM Regional showing SE MB getting the heaviest snow|
|NAM showing southern MB completely missing out on US storm|
but seeing some flurries on the back-side