Sunday, 19 February 2012

Pleasant Sunday, Unsettled Week Ahead

     Our warm winter continues for a couple more days before things begin to cool down later this week.

     It will start off quite sunny this morning, although high thin cloud will be increasing throughout the day today. It wont be full out cloudiness, rather a more filtered sunshine/mix of sun and cloud. Temperatures will be very pleasant thanks to a nice southerly flow of air. Despite a bit of cloudiness, I think most areas will reach or exceed the freezing mark today, especially over bare ground where there is little to no snow cover. Areas in the eastern RRV may have a bit of trouble exceeding zero thanks to snow cover, although there is still a chance. Here's what I'm predicting for today from east to west:

Steinbach 0 to 2°C
Winnipeg 0 to 2°C
Western RRV 2 to 6°C in general
Brandon 0 to 2°C

     Winds will be relatively light from the south at around 20 km/h. That continued wind and cloud cover overnight will allow for warm overnight lows around -5°C in Winnipeg.

     The rest of the week remains quite uncertain. Tomorrow and Tuesday specifically are very uncertain still at this point as a more organised system from the states moves north into NW Ontario. Models are bouncing around with scenarios, and there are some big differences among them as well. What is clear though is that it will be an unsettled week, with cooler temperatures beginning late-week.

     Personally, I am leaning towards more of a grazing-type situation, where snow will just graze southeast Manitoba with a few cm. Another area of snow from the west could give southern Manitoba periods of light snow Monday night and Tuesday with 1-3 cm. There is great uncertainty at this point, so stay tuned for the latest updates as the situation gets clearer.
     Below: Here's how much precipitation two different models are predicting for Monday and Tuesday. As you can see, the two are giving very different solutions showing the great differences that lie:
GEM Regional showing SE MB getting the heaviest snow
NAM showing southern MB completely missing out on US storm
but seeing some flurries on the back-side
      Another clipper system threatens to bring us more snow Thursday, although that is a little far off to draw to conclusions, especially when you consider tomorrow is uncertain! After warm temperatures Monday and Tuesday, it will cool off slightly to the minus single digits Wednesday, and warm slightly again Thursday with the clipper system, then cool off back to near normal or even a bit below by Friday and the weekend.


  1. There is still great uncertainty about tomorrow night's storm which is expected to develop in the Central Plains of the US. Although, it is looking more and more likely at this point that we will be seeing at least SOME snow, with the majority of it falling south east of Winnipeg. Just how much, we will have to wait for tomorrow.

    The GEM has backed off slightly on the snowfall for Winnipeg, bringing the system just a tad futher south east. Meanwhile, the NAM is now pushing the storm a little further north than its earlier run.

    The RRV could very well be spared by this storm, or be direct hit as the snow shield just grazes us. Heaviest hit areas, be it NW Ontario, North Dakota or SE MB (?), could see upwards of 10 or more cm of snow with the system.

    This is really one of those forecasts that could bust very easily considering the great differences among the models, and the sharp narrow snow shield.

    Stay tuned

  2. Warmest I've seen so far today among Environment Canada stations is 5.5°C in Brandon, which definitely surprised me. Among Manitoba Agriculture stations, 7.5°C in Souris and just over 8°C in Boissevain!

    I've reopened the poll at the top of page since we have yet to see a -30°C this winter. Feel free to vote for what you think, the poll closes next Sunday.

  3. Uncertainty in tonight's snowfall amounts still exists, mainly because of how narrow the western edge of the area of snow will be. It seems likely at this point that the heaviest snow will fall the further southeast you are. Most models now show similar solutions, bringing 5-15 cm of snow in the extreme southeast corner of Manitoba and along the Ontario border, and 10-20 cm in eastern North Dakota. Here's my 'guesses' of snowfall amounts below:

    Portage 0-1 cm
    Winnipeg 1-3 cm
    Steinbach 5-8 cm
    Sprague/Ontario border 10+ cm

    Notice how much higher snowfall amounts are just south and east of Winnipeg. That is why snowfall amounts are so uncertain at this point. If the western edge of the area of snow ends up just a bit more to the west than predicted, Winnipeg could be in for 5-10 cm, while if it ends up just a bit futher east, Winnipeg could see little to nothing.

    Stay tuned, things will be even clearer by afternoon

  4. Wow is that snow ever melting away.. :) Only to be replaced tonight.
    Very warm, reached 4.8°C here at my place in south end, and is now falling as cloud thickens.

    Even warmer out west, +9 in McCreary and +7 in Brandon, thanks to plentiful sunshine. And the afternoon is not over yet, so it will interesting to see if McCreary reaches double digits..

    A more detailed forecast on the snow tonight will be given later this afternoon so stay tuned for that.