Monday, 20 February 2012

Significant Snowfall Tonight

     Well, the consensus seems to have arrived, now that the system is drawing near. Snowfall and even some rain has already begun southeast of Winnipeg, and will begin developping around Winnipeg early this evening. Rain has already begun falling in parts of the city this afternoon ahead of the main area of snow. In fact, as I write this, it is raining lightly outside my window in the south end. Incredible weather today, feels like March. Snow depth has dropped a good 2 or 3 cm today thanks to abundant melting. It may not seem like a lot, but there really wasn't much snow on the ground to start with.

     As for the storm, snow has crossed the international border into southeast Manitoba, and it should begin in the city by early evening and really get going by mid evening. Exact accumulations are still uncertain for areas RRV and west, again because of the narrowness of the area of snow. Areas southeast of WPG are pretty much guaranteed to see 10 or more cm of snowfall. Here's a map below that I've prepared showing how much snowfall I am predicting with this system:

     As you can see, it is a tough forecast to make since snowfall amounts drop off so rapidly west of the system. If the snow ends up being a little further east than expected, Winnipeg could end up in the 2-5 cm zone, while if the system moves a little farther west, we would end up with closer to 10-15 cm. At the moment I am leaning towards 5-10 cm for the city. It will be a very wet snow, therefore blowing snow should not be a major issue with the strong NW winds expected tomorrow. It should still be quite mild with temperatures just slightly below zero tonight and tomorrow.

     Remember that lonely snow shovel? Looks like you'll finally be able to take it out! :P


  1. That snow is certainly having a tough time moving north into the city. Winnipeg is right on the edge of the area of snow so far, althought I wouldn't say that will continue just yet. It's so close, it's literally just a few kilometres from the south Perimetre and has been for the last hour.

  2. The snow shield is ending up to be just a little farther east than forecasted. In fact, the line between snow and no-snow is right through the city of Winnipeg right now, and is not budging much at all. It is snowing in the south end at the moment and has been for a couple hours, while areas near the airport have seen nothing yet. Just shows you how tough this forecast was..

    The snow has even been mixing in with some rain at times this evening here at my place this evening, so it's very slushy and messy out there.

    I expect the snow to continue to edge slowly into the rest of Winnipeg tonight, so we're not out of the clear just yet. I think 2-5 cm would be a better call for the city at this point.

  3. The steadier snowfall did not move into the west end of the city until overnight, while eastern and southern sections got heavy snow last night. It was coming down extremely heavily at my place last night. Measured about 7 cm so far, so that's in line with my original forecast. Much less amounts in western areas, looking foreward to seeing those numbers later today.