Friday 27 April 2012

Warming Trend

Today looks like a mix of sun and cloud for the city of Winnipeg, with cloud winning out over the sun. The rain to our west will try to sneak northeast towards us, but the strong high pressure in northern Manitoba, and the dry air will likely protect us from the rain. Expect highs around 13 or 14°C in the city today.
Areas around Melita and Virden will get a bit of a soaking today with 10+ mm of rain possible, and a few rumbles are not out of the question. Highs will remain in the single digits there. Brandon, you will likely see some showers today as well, but nothing like what Melita will see.

Skies will be much clearer tomorrow for Winnipeg, while areas in southwestern Manitoba will remain in quite a bit of cloud cover. Brandon, you should still see a few sunny break in the afternoon. Expect highs around 16 or 17 in Winnipeg under sunny skies. Expect 12 or 13 in Brandon.

The cut-off low over Montana will finally break apart and move east Sunday night, giving us an unsettled Monday for much of southern Manitoba. There may be a line of thunderstorms early Monday moving through southern Manitoba along the llj, but it is uncertain at this point. Stay tuned for updates.

After the showers Monday, things warmup nicely with highs generally in the high teens and low twenties for much of next week for ALL of southern Manitoba. Normals highs by then are around 16 or 17°C, so technically it wont be hugely above normal, and it wont be anything close to records which are in the low thirties. Looking foreward to it nonetheless :)

19 comments:

  1. Models have shifted the forecast for Sunday, giving lots of cloud cover and possible light showers instead of the sunnier and warmer forecast earlier. Will have to wait and see if that trend continues.

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  3. NWS Grand Forks indicating the potential for cold-core funnel clouds and tornadoes tomorrow in the RRV. Quoting from them:

    This scenario is similar to Davies cold core tornado events with a 500 mb low to the west and surface low...and resembles our mini landspout tornadoes of April 21 last Saturday. SPC does have some general thunder...so if storms can develop can't rule out a weak tornado and some small hail...so something we will have to monitor.

    Will be keeping an eye out for you all for updates.

    As for today, what can I say? Spectacular! Looks like we'll top around 18°C, and those winds aren't too bad.

    We will have to wait for Tuesday to get some real warmth. We could be reaching the low twenties that day, so something to look foreward to. Tuesday will also bring our next chance for thunderstorms after Sunday. Will keep an eye out.

    It looks unsettled for the next week, but it will also be slightly-above normal with bouts of sunshine.

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  4. SPC south of the broder ALREADY has us in a 15% risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday, which is a little early to issue such a forecast for this time of year for us. Will be keeping a close eye on the situation for you all over the next couple days. Could get interesting as lots of moisture, instability and warmth moves north as a cold front approaches.

    What worries me a bit about Tuesday though is the fact that things may develop a bit too far east. Storms would literally have to pop up right over us or just to our west to get something. Stay tuned.

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  5. There may be a few rumbles of thunder today in southern Manitoba along with some scattered showers, but nothing significant. There just isn't much instability to work with. There is a better chance for some lightning the closer to the US border you are, with the best chance late afternoon and evening.

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  6. New NAM advertising highs around 27 or 28°C for Tuesday now. Risk for severe storms still looks fairly confined to southeastern portions of the province. We will have a small time frame for storms, but with a weak cap, things could get going early. Of course, things could still change.

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  7. N-S line of steady rain moving NNE. It is now currently between WPG and Elie so we should be seeing some rain here in the city starting in about an hour or two and last for an hour or two. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but there should not be too much thanks to minimal instability. Heavier downpours, and areas which see trailing heavy rain or storms could see up to 10 mm, though it looks like a general 2 to 5 mm right now. Will update if things change.

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  8. Airport reporting gusts over 70 km/h with the line of showers, and it's looking very ominous to my west at the moment, from south end. No thunder being heard at the moment along this line. Expect some heavy downpours at times over the next hour or two in the city.

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  9. Generally looking like about 3 to 6 mm of rain fell over the city with that line, that has now passed. Looks like today's storm potential was a bust with just one lightning strike near Portage mid afternoon. You can blame the cloud cover today for that, which reduced heating and instability.

    Tomorrow looks spectacular to say the least. Expect highs around 19 or 20°C, and just a few clouds. It will be a little breezy, but nothing unbearable.

    Next threat for storms as mentioned is Tuesday, which could be an active day.

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  10. Pleasant afternoon out there today, around 17°C so far. Looks like we'll top out around 19 or 20°C.

    A reminder that you can view my thunder forecast by going through the 'thunder forecast' tab at the top of the page. That's where I do most of my thunderstorm forecasting talk, rather than here. If you do not want to read all the discussions I put, you may just look at the maps, and use the colour code provided at the top of the page to see the non-severe and severe thunderstorm risks for the given period.

    Briefly, storms will be possible with the warm front and llj overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. Looks like the best chance for these to occur will be along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway. Some hail will be possible with these storms. They will be elevated storms as well. Some areas getting hit with several back-to-back storms could see over 20 mm of rain, though amounts will vary.

    As for tomorrow afternoon, the morning rain and storms will push north in the Interlake with the warm front, allowing southern Manitoba to bask in the warm sector. Highs in the low to mid twenties look likely in areas which see the most sunshine. Humidity will also be present, with dewpoints in the low teens expected to the east of Brandon. A cold front moving east in the afternoon will act as a trigger to possible thunderstorms Portage and east. Severe thunderstorms will be possible to the east of the RRV. Stay tuned for updates.

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  11. Forgot to mention, but it is of note that the risk for severe storms is small, therefore there's a better chance we wont see severe storms in the afternoon than see some. The best chance for severe storms will be south of the border in Minnesota.

    Cloud cover and lingering convection from the morning storms could potentially hinder sunshine which would reduce the threat as well, though we will have to wait until the morning to see how widespread they are.

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  12. Some cells moving into southwestern Manitoba from Saskatchewan at the moment. Some of these are producing lightning, and even some torrential downpours locally. An umbrella will be handy in SW MB this evening. These showers and storms will generally weaken after sunset, since these are more daytime heating type activity, or 'popcorn' variety as you may have heard.

    Here's a link to visible satellite:

    http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=S_Manitoba&numimages=24

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  13. Thunderstorm risk tonight and morning looking less and less likely right now. Showers look to be the main story with possible rumbles here and there. If this trend continues, I will be downgrading the risk of storms in my forecast in the morning.

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  14. Storms forming near the US Border south of Brandon and Portage, with another cluster just to the south of Portage and Elie. None of immediate threat to WPG, but more could form later this afternoon.

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  15. Those storms are now looking impressive near Morden and Killarney. Could get some decent storms in the city of Winnipeg between 330 and 6 PM. Will keep an eye out.

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  16. Models seem to have handled today poorly. Strong thunderstorms are developping anywhere from Regina to the RRV so far. Quite a good one on radar over Moosomin at the moment. Areas just to the east of Moosomin on the Manitoba side of the border should be vigilant of some severe weather in the next hour or two.

    Hail really looks like the main severe threat for now with these storms.

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  17. Best dynamics and instability look like staying to the south, east and southwest of Winnipeg right now. All the storms that were heading towards us collapsed, while pushing southwards. I don't have a good feeling about storm potential in Winnipeg right now, but we still have a chance of something this evening.

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  18. Stunned that that line of thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba is holding itself together...

    Watch out along Highway 10, including Brandon. Torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and wind gusts up to 100 km/h are possible with this line.

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  19. Severe thunderstorm watch just issued for the Brandon area, just as the line is beginning to push through.

    I am leaning towards saying that this line will begin to weaken soon, but who knows, this day has been filled with surprises already..

    It is quite strong for the environment it is in, and as it moves east into even more unfavourable territory it should weaken. We'll have to wait and see.

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