|Parts of southern Manitoba will be white like this soon|
For tonight, most of the precipitation will remain in the form of rain for southern Manitoba, especially the further north and closer to the lakes you are. The heaviest amounts are expected to be south and east of Winnipeg with up to 30 mm of rain possible. Further west and north, rainfall will be lighter and not-so widespread. However, areas downwind of the lakes will get some enhanced precipitation, giving some higher amounts in those areas. Winnipeg is expected to get some lake-effect showers tonight as north/northeast winds blow off Lake Winnipeg.
Tomorrow is uncertain still at this point, but tomorrow is also when things get very intriguing. Heavy precipitation is expected to move in again from the south and wrap around in southeastern Manitoba into Thursday night and to start Friday. Much of this is expected to be in the form of snow with upwards of 30 cm possible to the east of Winnipeg, especially in the Sprague area. In Winnipeg, at the moment it is expected that we will be on the western fringe of this band of snow, therefore we are expecting to receive lighter amounts. However, lake-enhanced precipitation may be an issue. Elevation-enhanced precip will also be possible along the Manitoba escarpment.
However, uncertainty is strong at this point as some models (NAM/GFS) are still bringing over 20 cm for the city, while GEM is only giving about 5 cm. Keep up to date on this situation on Rob's Blog as I wont have much time to update over the next couple days.