Saturday, 13 October 2012

Enjoy The Warmer Weather While It Lasts!

     Temperatures are rising into the low teens over most of southern Manitoba today under plenty of sunshine, near normal for this time of year and making it the warmest day in 11 days.

     Things will only get warmer over the next couple days. Sunday will be similar to today in the low teens; perhaps a couple degrees warmer in some places. Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days with a nice southerly or southwesterly breeze. Some uncertainty exists on how warm it will get, mainly due to the potential for cloud cover. If we manage to get lots of sunshine, then highs approaching 20°C are possible. However, if we get stuck in cloud cover, which is what some models suggest, we may be stuck in the mid teens.

     At this point, it looks unsettled mid week as a possibly-strong low pressure system is expected to bring some rain to the Prairies. Just how much we will get here, well it's a bit too early to tell. What I can say however, is that snowfall does not look like a major threat.

     Beyond that, the weather looks normal at this point with up and down bounces in temperature and chances for precipitation. No major prolonged cold outbreaks, such as what we have been seeing the past 2 weeks, are expected in the near-future. Of course, if things change I will let you know.


  1. Sunny and seasonal day today as expected. There will be a little more cloud this evening with a small chance of a few showers, but it will be short-lived.
    Unfortunately, cloud cover does look like an issue tomorrow after all, so we will likely only see highs in the low to mid teens in southeastern Manitoba, while clearing skies in southwestern Manitoba will allow for highs in the high teens, and perhaps near 20°C depending on how much sun you get there. Showers will be possible, especially north of the Trans-Canada with showers expected in the Interlake and eastern Manitoba. Not expecting significant accumulations with max 2-5 mm.
    Tuesday still uncertain for cloud cover. At this point, it looks bright to start, but cloud may increase later in the afternoon. Highs in the high teens are likely, and perhaps near 20°C if we get full-blown sun. Highest chance for 20°C will be along the US Border.

  2. Getting some lightning in the last half hour out of some showers between Cypress River and Killarney. Nothing major, some local downpours at most with a couple rumbles of thunder. Just had a brief sprinkle go through Winnipeg, but we shouldn't get much more.

  3. Working on a summary of the thunderstorm season for Manitoba as well as Canada now. Will have it published later this month, no earlier than next week.

  4. The system mid-week that I mentioned in the post will affect us tomorrow and Thursday so enjoy today's marvelous temperatures in the mid to high teens.
    Rainfall could be significant for parts of southern Manitoba with this next storm. So far it appears the heaviest rains will be in western Manitoba and the Interlake into eastern Manitoba, but we will still see rain for the rest. Up to 30 mm possible in heaviest bands, will have more details later.

    Things cool down behind the system, but briefly. A brief warmup is in store Saturday, but this will be due to another low pressure system which could bring more rain. Behind this weekend system, things look much colder, potentially for a while.

  5. Looks like a showery day in the city today. Heavier rain will move in tonight, then becoming more showery again tomorrow. Accumulations may be significant with up to 30 mm possible by Friday morning. 40 mm of rain will be possible in the Duck mountains area of western Manitoba. Thankfully it's a mild rain as temperatures stay around 10°C today and tomorrow for Winnipeg.

  6. About 15 mm so far with this system in Winnipeg. Rain has been heavier to our west with over 30 mm in the western RRV. Rain will redevelop later this morning and continue through the afternoon and evening hours, becoming lighter overnight tonight. An additional 10 mm is likely, potentially a bit more if heavier bands get concentrated on us. It will be a colder rain today than yesterday as winds get quite gusty this afternoon and temperatures slowly fall throughout the day.

  7. The forecast for late October right now is looking dreadfully cold, starting around this time next week. Some models are showing the potential for lows well into the minus teens, and highs barely over -10°C. Let's hope these models are exagerating, but it's sure something to watch. In addition, this cold would begin behind a rather strong low pressure system mid next week. With the amount of cold possible, snow may be an issue in parts of the Prairies.
    However, ensemble models don't seem as aggressive with the cold, so it is something that I keep an eye on...

  8. NAM is bringing the risk of a few thunderstorms tomorrow evening throughout southern Manitoba as a cold front slices through. Not severe of course, but it will be interesting to see if can get anything.