Friday, 9 November 2012

Exceptional Snowfall Imminent

     Winter storm and snowfall warnings cover all of southern Manitoba as a major winter storm approaches. Light snowfall has already begun in southwestern and western Manitoba. However, the real heavy snowfall is expected to move in later this evening and especially overnight. This snow is expected to last through much of Saturday. Upsloping winds will also offer enhanced snowfall amounts for the western RRV and especially into the Duck and Riding Mountains.

     Snowfall is expected to continue into Saturday night with lingering periods of snow expected Sunday. Lingering fluries are still possible Sunday night, but beyond that things look to improve.

     Totals for this system are expected to be in the 20 to 30 cm range for many areas, with localized amounts between 30 and 45 cm possible over the upsloping regions I mentioned above. A few 30+ cm amounts are still possible elsewhere however.

     The precipitation is expected to mix in with rain, freezing rain or ice pellets for the southern RRV and southeastern Manitoba as the warm part of the system just grazes us. Great uncertainty still lies on how far west this warm sector will go, therefore at this point it is hard to say if Winnipeg will be getting some of this mixed precipitation.

     Winds are expected to be strong unfortunately, but thankfully not to an exceptional level; sustained between 30 and 40 km/h with gusts of 50 km/h. Blowing snow will be an issue as a result.

     As far as records are concerned, it will be difficult for Winnipeg to break the daily snowfall record tomorrow, considering it lies at 31 cm back in 1919. 

9 comments:

  1. Morning update:
    Looks like the bulk of the snowfall will fall in western Manitoba and the central Interlake today. The system is pushing a little further west and north than expected, therefore the RRV and southeastern Manitoba probably wont see exceptional amounts of snow this morning and afternoon with 2 to 5 cm, and locally 5 to 10 cm. 20 + cm definitely possible over the higher terrain of western Manitoba and the central Interlake by this evening.
    As a result of this further northwest push, we will get some warmer air aloft in southeastern Manitoba today which will allow for some of the precipitation to be ice pellets and freezing rain. Even the snow itself looks a little pellety at times.

    However, this does not mean it's a no-storm for our area. Another wave of heavy precipitation is expected to move north into the southeastern portion of the province later this evening and overnight tonight into early Sunday. This wave could bring significant snowfall in a short period of time, therefore it's hard to say at this point how much we will get. 10 to 20 cm would be possible. Will update later in the afternoon or early evening.

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  2. In addition, some thunderstorms will be possible with this next wave tonight in northwestern Ontario. Some of this lightning may creep into extreme southeastern Manitoba (Sprague, Whiteshell), but we will have to wait and see at this point.

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  3. 3.5 cm so far at my place.

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  4. 3.9 cm now, and the snow has ended for now. Looks like a cloudy afternoon with a few flurries and freezing drizzle at times, but generally we're done until tonight. A band of snow lingers in the western RRV, so those areas will continue to see accumulations.

    Don't let your guard down just yet though! As I mentioned previously, a second wave will bring heavy snow again tonight and early tomorrow. Then it looks like more snow will be likely tomorrow night in the wrap around of the system. In total, I think Winnipeg has a good shot at at least another 5 to 10 cm, and there definitely could be more.

    If we don't get that heavy snow overnight, this system will be an epic bust for forecasting. We'll wait and see..

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  5. Snow really starting to fill in on radar. Looks like we will be seeing some steady snowfall through the course of the evening and perhaps the overnight. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 to 20 cm of snowfall in the RRV, Interlake and southeastern Manitoba by tomorrow afternoon.

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  6. Getting some lightning strikes northwest of Kenora along the Ontario border now, like what I forecasted this morning would happen with this second wave.

    Snowing quite heavily in Winnipeg right now.

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  7. Very heavy snow band howering over Winnipeg right now, so I would definitely holding off any travel until it starts to settle a bit. Getting accumulations of 1 cm/10-15 minutes right now, so it is really accumulating. Over 10 cm now over the city now. I will go get a measurement in my yard in a bit, I'm just waiting for the snow to calm a little.

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  8. Up to 14 cm total at my place in south end now. 15 cm reported in Charleswood, 16 cm at downtown. Snow calming down a bit now in most of the city (in exception for east end). Things will be lighter soon before another push of heavier snow moves in between 11 pm and midnight. An additional 5 cm or more not out of the question tonight.

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  9. 16.5 cm total as of 11 pm at my place. 18 cm reported at Charleswood by Rob from Rob's blog.
    An unofficial report of 37 cm in Portage today, and it is still snowing there... Crazy stuff. Looking foreward to Environment Canada's summary tomorrow or Monday (whenever they issue it).
    Snow has let up, but don't be fooled! A heavy band of snow is quickly moving in from the southwest, so we will be back in heavy snowfall by midnight. Additional 5 to 10 cm likely.

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