Thursday, 10 January 2013


Warnings issued by Environment Canada. Snowfall amounts are my own predictions
     A major Colorado Low is set to give southern Manitoba a blast of winter weather over the next 48 hours. Snow and blowing snow will be a major concern throughout the region tomorrow, tomorrow night and early Saturday. Rural travel is highly unrecommend during this period unless it is essential. Highway closures are likely if the current forecast holds up.

     A band of snowfall has already entered the province in the Parkland regions of western Manitoba this evening and that will likely continue through the night with 5-10 cm. Light snow, freezing drizzle or light ice pellets will develop throughout southern Manitoba overnight tonight. Accumulations should not be significant, but roads may become slick if freezing drizzle occurs. A couple cm of snowfall may fall east and southeast of Winnipeg.

     Light snow will likely intensify in the morning, especially over southwestern Manitoba.

     The main event will begin tomorrow afternoon as the main system moves in. Heavy snow and strong winds will worsen through the afternoon throughout southern Manitoba and peak in the evening and overnight. The worse of the winds are expected to be in the Red River Valley where blizzard warnings have been issued. Winds of 50 km/h and gusts up to 70 km/h will be seen, and this along with the potential for 10 to 20 cm of snowfall through the night will cause widespread blowing snow and blizzard conditions. Elsewhere, winds will be about 40 gusting 60 km/h which will still cause significant blowing snow, but these areas are not under blizzard warnings at this time.

     Snowfall amounts tomorrow night will depend highly on the track of the system however, meaning there is still a little uncertainty at this time. Nonotherless, strong winds will provide blizzard conditions whether or not we receive more than 10 cm of snow. With winds over 50 km/h and temperatures below -10°C, it does not take much snowfall to create blizzard conditions. Currently, I am expecting 15 to 30 cm of snowfall in southeastern Manitoba, including Winnipeg. I have put areas west of Winnipeg and Killarney in the 10 to 20 cm zone. However, some higher amounts will be possible over higher elevations and along the escarpment.

     However the situation unfolds, temperatures will drop through the day in most areas reaching the minus teens. Conditions are expected to improve Saturday afternoon, but breezy conditions will likely still create some blowing and drifting snow. A cold night is expected Saturday night with lows near -30°C. Frigid weather is expected to continue for at least the next 2 weeks. Any warmup would be very brief.

     Stay tuned...

1 comment:

  1. Based on the latest model forecasts, the system will be a tad further east than anticipated yesterday. As a result, areas along the Saskatchewan border and the northern Interlake are no longer under any warnings. Under the current scenario expected, Winnipeg will be more under the 10-20 cm pocket, while areas to the east and southeast will remain in the 15-30 range. It will be a lot clearer by late afternoon.