Friday, 2 August 2013

Seasonably Cool Weather Continues

    The break from the summer heat will continue for the next several days...

    We will see a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon with highs only reaching the low twenties, a good 5 degrees below normal. Tonight will be another chilly one. Clear skies, light winds and low dewpoints will allow temperatures to drop to between 6°C and 8°C around Winnipeg. However, this wont be enough to break the old record of 3.3°C in 1972.

     The long-weekend will be fairly pleasant with gradually warming temperatures and plenty of sunshine for the most part. Saturday and Sunday will be sunniest, with more cloud moving in on Monday. We will reach around 23°C on Saturday, around 24°C on Sunday and 25-26°C on Monday. There will be a small chance for a shower or storm on Monday, however it is not a significant chance. Dewpoints will also be a little higher on Monday which will keep overnight lows closer to seasonal in the low teens.

      Enjoy the more seasonal temperatures on Monday while you can. Models have been hinting at a another shot of cold air mid week. A few days mid-late week may only see highs reaching just under or near 20°C. It is too early to say how long this will last. Before the cooler weather moves in however, there will likely be some opportunities for thunderstorms... but it is too early right now to confirm when.

A polar cyclone over northern Ontario/Hudson Bay lately has maintained a NW flow over Manitoba, keeping us cooler

16 comments:

  1. Looks like lows were right in my 6-8°C range overnight in the Red River Valley as a generalisation... with a few spots dropping to 9°C and some to 4-5°C. Winnipeg airport dropped to 5 or 6°C (will have to see tomorrow what the actual low was). Dropped to 7.9°C here in south St Vital, 8.7°C in Charleswood and just 11-12°C at The Forks. Here's some of the coldest readings in southern Manitoba earlier:

    Wasagaming 3°C
    St Pierre Jolys 4°C
    Marchand 5°C
    Somerset 5°C

    Wasagaming tends to be the coolest place in southern Manitoba on nights like these due to its relatively high elevation.

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  2. Hmm tomorrow doesn't look so sunny anymore... I was hoping the chance for showers would stay to our south, but now it looks like it will extend all the way to Winnipeg.. best risk will be later in the afternoon and into the evening.

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  3. JJ, do you think we'll see thunderstorms tomorrow or Monday?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Thunderstorm potential is not good tomorrow. I think if we see anything in Winnipeg it will most likely just be showers without thunder or lightning... Maybe an odd rumble or two, but nothing more than that. Better risk for storms will be in southwestern Manitoba in the morning.

      Thunderstorm potential is higher on Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening associated with a bit of a surface trough. If we can get enough sunshine and enough surface heating, there may be an isolated severe storm... however once again it isn't a particularly impressive setup.

      Main thunderstorm risk then pushes to our east and south on Tuesday.

      That's how I see it right now.. will update tomorrow morning if necessary.

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  4. Enjoy the sunshine this morning. Things will only get cloudier as the day wears on with a fairly cloudy afternoon in store. There will be a good chance for showers as well this afternoon and evening. Perhaps 1-3 mm could fall in Winnipeg. I'm not expecting any thunderstorm activity here.

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  5. Models coming into good agreement right now with tomorrow night's event. Looking quite likely at this point that we'll see some showers, heavy at times, along with embedded thunderstorms tomorrow night and early in the morning on Tuesday. This will be associated with the cold front itself... which will cool us off quite a bit. Temperatures will struggle to reach 20°C on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will also be a very chilly start to the day on Wednesday with morning lows between 4 and 6°C. Old record on Wednesday is 3.9°C in 1884 so it will be tough to break that.

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    1. How much rain might we see?

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    2. I'm calling it 5-10 mm right now, but amounts will vary considering it's convective. Some heaviest hit areas could see as much as 10-20 mm under any embedded thunderstorms along the front.
      I've created a rainfall poll for the event.

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  6. Neat blog, I like all the sections!

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    1. Welcome Frank! Glad you like it!

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  7. Starting to see some thunderstorm activity develop just east/southeast of Souris. There's actually a warm front right along the US border this afternoon so I'd expect some storm activity in that area to continue in the next few hours... with activity mainly skirting along and just north of the border. However, instability is extremely low and there was no sun there today, so these storms are quite weak. Winnipeg likely wont get any storm activity out of this unfortunately.

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    1. Are these storms discrete storms or squall lines?

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    2. It's essentially just a line of rain with embedded thunder at this time... non-severe, nothing serious, with the main threat heavy rain.

      Band of steady rains moving into the city very soon at this time.

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    3. So basically not a Tstorm.

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    4. Well there is lightning so I'm calling it a thunderstorm:

      http://weather.gc.ca/lightning/index_e.html?id=WRN#mapTop

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    5. Whatever you say, you know more about weather then I do.

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