Sunday 2 March 2014

2nd Coldest March Day on Record

     Yesterday turned out to be an historical March day in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba. In Winnipeg, the mean temperature of -31.5°C made it the second coldest March day on record since 1872:

Table: Top 4 coldest March days by mean temperature since 1872

Rank
Mean Temperature
Date
1
-32.0°C
March 7, 1880
2
-31.5°C
March 1, 2014
3
-29.5°C
March 9, 1880
4
-29.3°C
March 2, 2003

     Yesterday's low of -37.0°C was just shy of the old record of -37.8°C in 1962 for the day. It is also the 9th coldest March morning since 1872.

     Yesterday's high of -26.0°C absolutely smashed the old record low maximum of -22.2°C set in 1972. It was also the second coldest March maximum since 1872.

     And as if all that wasn't enough, yet another milestone was reached yesterday. A minimum wind chill value of -49.6 was the lowest wind chill value ever in March since 1953. Old record was -48.8 on March 1, 1962. (Note that wind chill records do not exist prior to 1953).

     The cold continues for the next few days with another -30°C night possible tonight. However, it looks like we're done with the extreme type of cold we had yesterday. A general moderating trend is expected over the next week, but it will be slow. At this point, an extended more permanent-type period of above normal temperatures is still not in the foreseeable future.

     To finish off, here's a map showing lows from yesterday across southern Manitoba:

27 comments:

  1. Julien.. I figure yesterday must have been at least 20C below normal.. which is an extreme daily anomaly that hardly ever happens. I believe the last time we had a daily anomaly of 20C or more was on March 19 2012 when we hit our warmest March day ever of +23.7C. So yesterday's cold for this time of year was as extreme as our warmth was in 2012. Talk about payback!

    (By the way, typo on yesterday's record low (should read 1962, not 1967)

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    1. We always pay for that type of warmth somehow! And thanks for the typo reminder, wrote the post quickly this morning, sorry about that.

      Thought I'd let you know that after last night's discussion, looks like I'll consider the record low for March 19 as -29.4°C in 1885 and 1965 as the new record for the date. I don't see how that -31.1°C in 1887 would have been true giving the situation.

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    2. No problem.. so many numbers to keep track of these days! Keep up the great record keeping!

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    3. JJ I wonder if the winter records for Grand Forks NWS and UND including (the last 4 consecutive cold days and counting ) are equally as impressive as ours. They also have a record for second most Blizzards 7 exceeded only by the 10 in 1996-7 . Does the "10" include March and the infamous early April 97 Rain/ Blizzard. Perhaps Dan GF can let us know. Makes interesting reading See FGF/NWS
      The 2013-2014 Meteorological Winter
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=100931&source=0

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    4. Unfortunately I can't add much more input about records south of the border... still haven't figured out the noaa climate data website! You could always ask Dan via his ''Northern Plains Weather'' facebook page to get a direct answer!
      https://www.facebook.com/NorthernPlainsWeather

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  2. Cloudy day today as a very weak system slides to our southwest. Wont see any snow with it, other than maybe a few snowflakes this evening possibly.

    Next system to watch will be on Wednesday-Thursday, and this could be yet another significant blowing snow event here in the RRV. Winds look quite strong on Wednesday, particularly late in the day/in the evening when south winds of 50 gusting to 70 km/h are possible. snow is expected Wednesday night, albeit there are some discrepancies on timing. Most models seem to agree much of the snow would fall overnight and morning on Thursday. 2-5 cm looks possible and the snow may be heavy at times. Note that winds will likely lighten up once the snow starts, but they will pick up out of the north/northwest on Thursday and could gust up to 60 km/h. Blowing snow would be an issue. Something to watch..

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  3. JJ, do you think it's safe too say that after the next 2 days we are done with this type of extreme cold?

    I certainly hope so.

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. I'd say we'll be done with the deep -30°C weather, but I highly doubt we're done with the cold (minus teens and twenties) yet. More likely than not, spring will be slow to arrive this year.

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  4. Some uncertainty with timing, but looks likely we'll see some light snow tomorrow afternoon with small accumulations. Winds will be the main issue at around 40 km/h and gusting up to 60 km/h. Blowing and drifting snow will once again be a problem outside the city. Winds calm tomorrow night as the heavier snows move in. 3-6 cm possible overnight and morning on Thursday. Winds pick up out of the north on Thursday afternoon with blowing and drifting snow and falling temperatures.

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  5. Looks like another possibly more significant clipper for next Monday with 10+cm possible. Welcome to March, folks!!!

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    1. That seems to be especially the GEM's doing. GEM is agressive compared to other models right now with that clipper. Nonetheless, snow chances becoming more frequent as temperatures get warmer the next week, seems to be the story of the winter!

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  6. Snowfall amounts have risen quite a bit in recent model runs. Consensus has become for 3 waves of snowfall between now and Friday morning. First moves in this afternoon but will likely not be very long-lasting and be mostly tapered off by evening. A couple cm likely. Blowing and drifting snow will be significant on highways as winds pick up to around 40 km/h and gusting up to 60 km/h out of the south.

    Next wave moves in overnight tonight and last until the morning or midday tomorrow. Another 5-8 cm possible with this and the snow may be quite heavy at times.

    Last wave of snowfall is expected tomorrow evening with an additional 1-3 cm possible by overnight. Winds will have also picked up from the north at 30 km/h with drifting snow in open areas.

    So in total, I'd expect a good 8-13 cm of snow in the Winnipeg area by Friday morning!

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  7. Hey jj, what's the latest with Mondays system?
    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Still the potential for some snow, but amounts are uncertain this far out and depend on track. GEM specifically has flip flopped in recent runs, pushing the system further north giving little precip in our area.... which could still change.

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  8. Could get pretty nasty out there this afternoon with that wind as the snow comes in! Visibilities of less than 2 km or likely locally on highways in the RRV.2-4 cm of new snow looks like a good range for now for this first wave.

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  9. Quite the storm out there! Very rare snowsquall warnings have been issued east and north of Winnipeg for late this afternoon and early evening. Near zero-visibility at times in the next few hours.

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  10. For the first in a long time long range models are looking promising for us in the next 2 weeks with nomral to above temperatures possible. Let's hope it happens, we deserve it.

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  11. That third wave of snow tomorrow night looks more intense than when I made the forecasts this morning. As a result, instead of 1-3 cm I'm calling it another 2-5 cm. Not out of the question that we have totals as high as 15 cm here throughout the 3 events. Already about 5 cm today, a bit higher than expected so will have to watch out for unexpectedly higher amounts with these next two waves!

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  12. Looks like the heaviest snow ended up to our north with this wave. Will have a measurement here soon.

    Snow will end soon this morning, then we'll have another break before the last wave moves in late afternoon or early evening. An additional 3-6 cm possible. Doesn't look like winds start picking up until late evening or overnight, so blowing snow wont be a big issue today thankfully. Drifting and blowing on highways tomorrow, but not severe.

    We cool down for a few days, and we'll likely dip below -20°C Saturday morning. Warmup Sunday and Monday, with the potential for above zero temperatures! Enjoy it while it lasts, things cool down Tuesday (not extreme cold by any means). Some snow will be possible on Monday, but amounts don't look very high at this point if we do get anything.

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  13. Looks like a good 5-6 cm with this second wave here in south end, bringing the total so far with this parade of systems to 10-11 cm. Snow depth about 56 cm or so (based on a quick few measurements, will get an official measurement late afternoon) and max depth 90 cm... now the deepest snow depth I have measured here since I started measuring in 2009.

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    1. After a more thorough measurement late this afternoon, adjusting the snow depth as 54 cm.

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  14. Judging by how things are going so far, another 5 cm not out of the question this evening. Just one more to get through!

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    1. 5.2 cm here in south end as of 9:45 pm. Main batch of snow mainly over in Winnipeg but we'll likely continue to see some periods of light snow at times in the next few hours.

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  15. Skies clear this morning but we wont rise much at all today as colder air moves in. A cold night tonight into the -20's.

    Big warmup for Sunday, very likely reaching above zero. Wont be overly sunny however.

    Warm on Monday, especially in the morning before colder air moves in in the afternoon. Colder Tuesday and Wednesday.

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  16. Then it looks like it warms up quite nicely again by Thursday likely reaching the 0 C mark and even warmer than that after that. Although it may very well be gradual, it looks like the snowmelt process may be underway by next weekend with the warmer temps.

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    1. Sure nice to see the warmer forecast, but what is sad is that we're only going to be closer to normal! It's looking more likely at this point that we are done with the extended periods of cold below normal temperatures FOR NOW.

      A side note: the normal highs I have calculated using the 1981-2010 normals reach zero for the first time on March 16 and reach above zero by March 20.

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  17. Total for me from last night's snow was 7.4 cm, bringing a grand total of about 17 cm for the 2-day parade of systems.

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