Friday 27 June 2014

Active Pattern Continues

     Thunderstorms did materialize across parts of southern Manitoba overnight and this morning. The bulk of the storm activity occurred in the Whiteshell area east of Winnipeg and also in southwestern Manitoba. Multiple waves of thunderstorms have been and are occurring so far today in the Brandon area with 25+ mm recorded so far, including about 32 mm in Forrest and Virden according to Manitoba Agriculture.

     Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue throughout the day in southern Manitoba, especially over central and western parts. Severe thunderstorms are possible with the main threat being the flooding rains. Localized amounts of 50+ mm are possible under thunderstorms today. Some hail, strong winds and funnel clouds are also possible, but not the main threats.

     Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the night for parts of southern Manitoba. Additional thunderstorm activity is likely tomorrow, especially over central and eastern parts of southern Manitoba. Main threat will again be flooding rains. Winnipeg's best shot for thunderstorm activity will be tonight and tomorrow.

     We do not dry out for a while. Scattered shower activity remains possible Sunday through to Canada Day Tuesday. Thunder is possible on Sunday but not very likely Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be quite cool Monday and Tuesday as well, likely only reaching mid to high teens. Drier weather returns by Wednesday and temperatures should warm back up late in the week.

44 comments:

  1. Just seeing how things have been so far I think Winnipeg will miss out on most of the action over the next few days. I'd say the severe thunderstorm risk is very low across the province today. No sunshine no daytime heating which won't give us the real potential we could have if it was sunny. If anything, storms will mostly produce heavy rains but not much else. With that said it's certainly very muggy today as expected.

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    1. Agreed with you, I'm not very optimistic for a good severe threat today. Heavy rains really is the main threat today.

      Notice the lower risk I have for tomorrow in the thundercast for Winnipeg... Can never rule out the possibility of everything missing us!

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    2. Yeah, i think you should always have Winnipeg one risk less then areas around it!

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  2. The instability is certainly there today but shear and sunshine is deeply lacking which is why i'd be very surprised to see severe thunderstorms anywhere today into tonight.

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  3. Well, sunny breaks are occurring here now in Winnipeg and in some other parts of Southern MB as well. Really nasty outside now with that humidity and the sun.

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  4. With all the sun that is now peaking through, will be interesting to see how close we get to 30°C. As soon as the sun came, temperatures jumped to 28°C at the airport.

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  5. Jj Are we.looking for.good surfing conditions at Grand Beach.on Sunday?

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    1. At this time, winds look strong on Sunday from the south-southwest, likely 30-40 km/h or so in Winnipeg, but of course stronger over the open waters on Lake Winnipeg. There will be the chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as well. Although, the risk for thunder is not as high as today and tomorrow. We should still manage to see a bit of sun, especially in the morning. As for temperatures, it's looking a little cooler than it did this morning - more like low 20's, maybe mid 20's if we get enough sun.

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  6. Rainfall warnings issued for the RRV. First wave of storms is likely tonight as storms from North Dakota push in this evening. Could also see some pop up storms beforehand, but the risk is lower for any given location. More storms likely tomorrow, but exact timing is still a question mark. Locally 50+ mm likely over the next couple days.

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  7. It's officially a 30°C day... High of 30.5°C at the airport as of 4 pm with a humidex of 38.3. Hottest day since May 29.

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  8. Any chance Winnipeg will get big storms? looking for info to gather so i can share on twitter....

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  9. As June draws to a close, is July is Winnipeg's stormiest month?

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  10. Wicked gusts on the river at St Vital park and driving rain

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    1. Yeah, quit the storm! Must be gusts of at least 60 km/h!

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  11. Afew thunder roars and its gone Left a few mms and ripped the pool cover to shreds. looks like round2 will be its return momentarily.

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  12. Well so much for the picnic with my family in St. vital park. Luckily we got in the car before it started pouring :). When the first drive of rain came in , we saw it first raining a couple hundred metres south of where we, then we just got in the car before there was a strong drive of strong southerlies and heavy rain. Was quite an exiting one! Bring on the next batch!!

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  13. JJ, did you know that when I lived in the Philippines from the 90's and early 2000's, thunderstorms are more frequent than here in Winnipeg, particular this time of the year. The Philippines is now in the rainy season, that's why we see more storms on nearly daily basis, that takes place in the afternoon or evening hours. When these occur, parts of Manila and it's immediate surroundings gets inundated that results in heavy traffic congestions and stranding passengers to go home from school or work.

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  14. Kind of worried they'll be flooding in st. Boniface with number 2 coming in soon.�� Still, nice to see winnipeg getting some nice storms, and some summary weather!��

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    1. Sorry, the question marks are faces from emoji on my computer. i'm to lazy to make my own!

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  15. I apologize for not being able to answer you Mike... Looks like I've missed yet another Winnipeg thunderstorm event while working.

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  16. you see a chance for a lightning show tonight?

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    1. Thunderstorm potential continues basically through the night until tomorrow night.

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  17. Sweet, so this rain won't kill off anything or the potential. Any heavy rainfall from them? Sorry I worry and ask so much, I'm weather obsessed I guess.

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    1. With this extremely moist air mass, yes heavy rainfall is the main concern over the next day and a half.

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  18. Quite the rainfall in parts of southern Manitoba so far today. Here's some rainfall totals as of 9 pm:

    Rapid City area 75+ mm (this actually is a report from family of mine) (as of 8 pm)
    Pierson 59.6 mm
    Moosehorn 54.6 mm (in the Interlake) (as of 8 pm)
    Forrest 50.6 mm
    Brandon ~ 45 mm or so
    Virden 36.8 mm
    Letellier 31.2 mm
    Morris 29.6 mm (as of 8 pm)

    These are according to Manitoba Agriculture and Environment Canada.

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    1. Just got some information from my family in the Rapid City area. The creek that runs through the town is bursting its banks onto the streets of the town. Certainly going to be lots of flooding across southern Manitoba in the next few days.

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    1. Heavy rain is the main concern.

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    2. Okay, i look forward to seeing a sweet lightning display...

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  20. Another pop up brought a decent rainfall to the south, central and east parts of the city just after midnight last night. Received an additional 7.1 mm here in south St Vital. West end was almost untouched with just 0.3 mm in Charleswood and no accumulation recorded at the airport. Looks like generally 5-10 mm in the eastern half according to wunderground stations.

    As for today, look for showers and thunderstorms to begin sometime around lunch or early afternoon. Looking like a stormy afternoon at this point. Scattered showers and embedded thunder remain possible in the evening through to tomorrow morning. At this point, there is consensus that wrap around rainfall with this system will move in sometime in the afternoon tomorrow. As a result, it doesn't look like we'll see much, if any, sun tomorrow. Rain could be heavy at times with an additional 10+ mm possible by Monday morning. Some models are bringing 25+ mm so this definitely has the potential to be another significant rainfall event wherever the heavier bands end up.

    Scattered showers with possibly embedded thunder to continue on Monday. Drier on Tuesday with still a chance for showers, especially in the morning. Not much new accumulation expected for Tuesday. It will be downright cold though, likely only reaching mid teens for a high. Old record low maximum for Tuesday is 13.9°C in 1954... I don't think we'll be breaking that however.

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  21. Brandon received about 51 mm of rain yesterday. This brings their June total to 164.6 mm so far, already 9th rainiest June on record since 1890. With an additional 50+ mm possible over the next couple days, Brandon may exceed 200 mm for the month of June this year. Only twice since 1890 has Brandon seen over 200 mm in June. Top 5 rainiest Junes in Brandon are as follows:

    258.3 mm in 1902
    216.2 mm in 2005
    196.1 mm in 1901
    185.7 mm in 1954 and 1971
    (note that I haven't quality checked Brandon's rainfall data yet)

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  22. Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect for Winnipeg and RRV and southeast MB. Good chance at severe storms later with very heavy rain the primary threat.

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  23. Due point of 23 as of 3:31 at YWG!!

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  24. Looks like the eastern half of the city has been the place to be for rainfall today. A soaker of a day with some of the heaviest downpours imaginable at times. According to wunderground station, looks like general 15-40 mm from a swath from south St Vital to East St Paul. I've received 20.6 mm here in South St Vital on top of the 7.1 mm that fell overnight, putting my monthly total to a whopping 148.1 mm.

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    1. Oh yeah, definitely. According to @weatherinthepeg' at his place in Norwood, 13 mm in just 15 minutes fell with the last storm! You can only imagine how much rain would fall if a cell like that stayed stationary over an area for a couple hours.

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  25. JJ, is there still the risk of severe thunderstorms this evening, even though i don't really see anything coming our way on the radar?
    Thanks, Anon

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    1. Looks like the bulk of the thunderstorm activity is finished, but can't rule out a few more isolated showers or storms this evening, especially early this evening. Attention now turns to the rain coming in tomorrow and lasting into part of Monday. Models hint at a possible additional 20-40 mm with this, but we'll have to see how things look in the morning to confirm.

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    2. Ahh that sucks... Despite all the severe thunderstorm watches in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba, NONE of them where upgraded to warnings.

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    3. There are currently severe thunderstorm warnings north and east of the city. Wind and flooding are the main concerns.

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    4. Was not there when i posted the comment, though.

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  26. I little weird how that severely warned line northeast of the city is moving north easterward.. everthing else seems to be moving in a more north or north north westward motion. Any idea of why , JJ?

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    1. Maybe it's just my eyes, but the line seems to be moving due north to me.

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  27. Using memory and Wiki*, both somewhat unreliable, it appears this week historically, has been the worst for Eastern Prairie tornado activity and for casualties. JJ Is that just speculation or is there a better source for this info? *My name

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