Monday 16 June 2014

Super Soaker

     The sun has finally come out today in the Red River Valley after a drenching weekend....

     The first rains came in Friday evening for the RRV but were not overly significant. More importantly, slow-moving and training thunderstorms around and north-northeast of Winnipeg Saturday afternoon dumped some impressive rainfall totals. Locally 20+ mm of rain fell with these storms. Additional rains fell in the evening and overnight with, once again, locally 20+ mm. A Colorado Low moving north brought us our drencher of an afternoon yesterday with an additional 30-50 mm in the northern RRV.

     3-day rainfall totals were quite impressive with highest amounts through the RRV. Thanks to Saturday's thunderstorms, over 100 mm of rain fell in total north of the city in the Lockport area. In Winnipeg, generally 65-80 mm fell. With 69.7 mm of rain at the airport, it was the most significant rain event since the biblical rains of late May 2010 when 80.0 mm fell May 28-29. In addition, with 40.1 mm yesterday alone, we obliterated the old rainfall record of 18.3 mm in 1928 for June 15.

Here's a map of rainfall totals across southern Manitoba from Friday through to Monday morning:

     As for the remainder of this week, we've got a break in the rain until Wednesday. Today, with a mix of sun and cloud we should manage to reach about 21°C. Similar day tomorrow, reaching 21-22°C.

     Wednesday is when things get interesting. Warmer weather will be returning with highs of 26-28°C expected in Winnipeg. Depending on how things go, thunderstorms may be possible Wednesday night. However, there remains great uncertainty about the system. As a result, stay tuned to the comments below for updates in the next couple days. Note that a severe thunderstorm event is possible in extreme southwestern Manitoba with this late Wednesday.

41 comments:

  1. I should note that Fort Frances in northwestern Ontario is now up to an incredible 180.8 mm of rain so far this month... Taking a quick glance at Fort Frances' records since 1892, it appears this is so far the 11th rainiest June on record there (note that I did not quality check any data, only took a quick glance). Turns out their rainiest June was in 2002 with 292.9 mm of rain.

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  2. JJ, sorry i let you know too late I picked up 75mm of rain here in Stjames through Saturday/sunday wait more like 80mm here rain gauge filled up I had to dump it out once.

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  3. Today is looking a lot cloudier than anticipated as an area of low cloud moves in from the northeast. This was not foreseen by models yesterday. As a result, we may only reach about 19-21°C today. The cloud may begin to break up a bit this afternoon, but we'll have to wait and see.

    Warmth still scheduled to come tomorrow with a high around 26-27°C. Thunderstorms, some severe, still possible in southwestern Manitoba in the evening. Winnipeg's chance for storms will be on Thursday... some leftovers possible overnight and morning from southwestern Manitoba. Redevelopment will be possible in the afternoon depending on timing of the front. More details to come tomorrow if I have time (we might go chasing tomorrow).

    For Friday, scattered showers and storms are possible given a bit of lingering instability.

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  4. Don't see us getting to 26 or 27C tomorrow especially with a cooler easterly wind and cloud cover being potential factors. Today has turned out to be alot lousier than expected. May not reach even 19C today especially if we stay stuck in this cloud cover which it looks likely that we will.

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    1. Nope, looks like the cloud stuck around too long today. For tomorrow, as long as we stay fairly sunny, at least 25°C shouldn't be a major issue.

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  5. Interesting discussion from the PASPC regarding our region for tomorrow/tomorrow night as far as severe weather is concerned.

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  6. With all the rain we saw over the weekend and now with the prospects of more heavy rain, suddenly we have some flooding issues to possibly contend with over the next few days. The next few days could bring us everything from heavy rains to severe thunderstorms. With all this water, it's gonna be quite the mosquito invasion in a week from now.

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  7. Speaking of severe weather, severe thunderstorms looking quite probable tomorrow night through much of Southern Manitoba. Have a feeling the remainder of this month may be quite active especially with more warmer and humid air moving in.

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    1. With this upcoming system pretty much stalling to our west in the next few days, we will have many chances for storms in the next few days from tomorrow night through to Friday.

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  8. Up bright and early to go chasing with Scott and Matt from A Weather Moment in South Dakota today (by the way, my first time in the United States!). As for Manitoba, I've issued a slight risk of severe storms for southwestern Manitoba today mainly due to the potential for flooding rains due to training and slow-moving storms. 50+ mm locally is possible in an already water-logged area around Melita. Strong winds and large hail also possible.

    We should manage to reach around 26-27°C in Winnipeg today, assuming cloud holds off until this evening. Storms are expected to push east through the night slowly, reaching the RRV and the Winnipeg area overnight or early tomorrow morning. It looks rainy and stormy through most of the day around here. Significant rainfall is not out of the question.

    More storms and showers possible Friday, scattered in nature.

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  9. Thanks Jj Have a not too safe trip.Looking forward to the picz.

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    1. Thanks; we're currently sitting in Mitchell, South Dakota, west of Sioux Falls. Anything that goes up here could be significant in a hurry with some parameters pretty much off the charts today. Humidity is oppressive with a temperature of 31°C and dewpoint of 23°C - nice feeling that humidity again!

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    2. SEE Ashley nd just nkrth of you has a TORNADo warning. Is it on the ground yet. PS Flying J has a great place to eat. freshen up on thr nort side of Sioux Falls on I 29

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    3. We are currently just north of Plankinton, SD. Explosive development today, we have seen towers rise up incredibly quickly. May have pics in the next few days.

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  10. We have just witnessed a tornado and a funnel cloud simultaneously...

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    1. Yankton on 81 or Plankton ??

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    2. Sorry, I should have mentioned the location. We were north of Plankinton... it was the same storm where a tornado hit Wessington Springs. We were very close to that town so that hit a little too close to home. Never a good feeling seeing a town being hit...

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    3. Were you live T.......V.....net? There was an accompanying blog.

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    4. We were not streaming live.

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  11. Must have been a pretty nice chase yesterday, JJ... Was that your first tornado??

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  12. Yes, it was a day of firsts for me yesterday. My first time in the United States and my first tornado... and it sure was a decent first!

    Thundercast not to be updated this morning, we're still in South Dakota. However, taking a quick look at things, conditions look favourable for some rain and potentially thunderstorm activity in the Winnipeg area later today. So overall, a gloomy day ahead.

    The next few days look unsettled with some sun and pop up showers and storms for Friday, Saturday and yet again on Sunday. We should only reach low 20's tomorrow but more like low to mid 20's Saturday and Sunday (22-25°C, coolest on Sunday).

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  13. Are you mloving east or is this setup stuck here 4awhile

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    1. Nope we're headed back to Winnipeg so normal operations here return tomorrow. But yes, the weather for southern Manitoba is not changing much in the next few days with multiple days of pop up showers and storms, as I mentioned in my previously comment.

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  14. Here is a summary of last nights rain in the RedRiver Valley ND & MN on my name or
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=102941&source=0

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  15. GFS sure is taking a strong stance on the heat for Saturday, high's of near 29C for us with CAPE values exceeding 3,000 J/Kg severe weather is probable based on its opinion. What do you think of it's idea JJ, to far fetched? imo i don't think it is.

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    1. An isolated severe storm or two would be possible if enough sunshine and moisture can be present and a surface trough or cold front can set itself up in southern Manitoba. Yes, GFS's scenario would be a better scenario for severe storms (NOT simply because of decent instability I must add), however, note that other models aren't as agressive. As a result, the potential is still in question. A difference between the GFS and the NAM for instance, is that the GFS seems to be much further west with the entire setup on Saturday.

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  16. How about this evening anything in play for this evening thunderstorm wise?

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    1. We didn't really get any sunshine today and thus the chances are quite slim. Might get a rumble of thunder, but the chance is very slim as mentioned. Other then that a band of down pours is moving into the city and will last for the half hour or more, followed by the chance of more rain. Inside these downpours is likely where you'll here the thunder if anything happens.

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    2. Agreed with anon. I don't think there will be any thunderstorm activity tonight for Winnipeg right now. Lack of sunshine today certainly was hurtful. However, rains this evening could be heavy at times (we drove through some of those showers to our south on the way here and it was coming down pretty steadily with reduced visibility). 5-15 mm looks likely but there certainly could be locally higher amounts in parts of the RRV.

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    3. With rain like what we've just got in south St Vital the last 10 minutes, 20+ mm is not out of the question tonight. Just picked up about 7 mm in the past 15 minutes at my place.

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    4. I was wondering when someone would report. We are near BGrandin Bridge and its been raining like that seveal times since aft.

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  17. I think the most incredible thing about all of this, is that all these heavy downpours have not really been associated with thunderstorms. One can only Imagine what kind of heavy downpours we'd be facing if they were thunderstorms. Only a matter of time before that happens in my opinion.

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  18. Wow, quite the situation as far as Saturday is concerned. If the GFS is right, it could be a chasing day here in Southern Manitoba but that's a big if. The NAM paints a different picture with cooler temps and showers. We'll see what tomorrow's runs say.

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  19. Turning out to be a cloudier day than sunny as clouds increase this morning. There will be rain at times and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon.

    For tomorrow, NAM is now moving things a little further west which will give us a warmer day and a greater chance for some stronger storm activity. We should manage to reach about 26-28°C assuming we get enough sunshine. Actually, if we manage to get sunshine almost the entire day we could even see things get a little warmer than that. Location of surface troughs a little uncertain at this time, we will have to see where they are tomorrow morning.

    Still warm on Sunday, reaching 24-25°C at least. There may be a chance of another shower or storm, but the chance might be a little lower than on Saturday. If things end up further west than expected again, the chance would be higher.

    Thundercast wont be updated until later this morning or early afternoon.

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    1. Forgot to mention that I'll have a few pictures of our trip later today or tomorrow depending on when I have the chance to do so.

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    2. Thundercast wont be updated I apologize. Turning into a much busier day than anticipated.

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  20. By the way, was quite the rainfall in the Brandon area yesterday with 75 mm of rain yesterday at Brandon airport! In Winnipeg, looks like the heaviest amounts were in the south and central parts. I received 24.4 mm here in south St Vital which brings the June total up to 105.1 mm so far. Turning out to be quite a soggy month!

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  21. JJ, does severe weather still look likely tomorrow?

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  22. Not sure what JJ thinks about this but I'd say yes severe weather is certainly possible tomorrow. There will be 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE plus ample shear to work with. The question now is where the fronts/troughs setup over southern manitoba tomorrow plus how much daytime heating we can get.

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  23. Thanks Anon, gonna be interesting to find out tomorrow

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  24. Sorry Mike, I didn't have the chance to provide an update last night.

    A summer-like day today... With lots of sunshine, we -should- manage to reach around 28-29°C assuming cloud doesn't become too widespread this afternoon. Thunderstorms, some severe, are likely later this afternoon and evening for the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. Winnipeg could get into this, however, my main concern would be that things fire just to the east of the city. We'll see... Other than that, scattered showers and storms for the remainder of southern Manitoba today.

    Another nice day tomorrow with lots of sun and temperatures reaching around 26-28°C. There is the potential for a shower or storm, but the risk is lower than today. The chance for Winnipeg is quite low.

    Once again, pop up showers and storms likely on Monday. With a bit more cloud and colder air moving in, we should only manage to reach low 20's. Thunderstorm risk is not as high as today and tomorrow.

    Looks like things finally starting to calm down by Tuesday. Other than the chance for some showers along the US border, the rest of southern Manitoba should remain dry.

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