Tuesday 10 June 2014

Warm Today & Unsettled Next Few Days

     With lots of sun today we should manage to reach a high around 26°C or so today in Winnipeg. Winds will be brisk out of the south-southwest this morning, becoming more westerly this afternoon. A surface trough will be responsible for this slight wind shift this afternoon. As this trough moves east, a few thunderstorms are possible in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba this afternoon and evening. My main concern for Winnipeg is that things setup just to our east, missing the city. An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out in southeastern Manitoba. Will provide updates in the comments below today.

     Looks like Winnipeg may be once again brushed by a rainy system tomorrow bringing some rain to southeastern Manitoba late in the day. This will leave us with mostly cloudy skies and a high around 19-21°C in Winnipeg.

     Sun comes back on Thursday but cool conditions will continue with a high around 19-21°C once again.

     At this point, it appears rain will be possible on the weekend as our unsettled weather pattern continues. Stay tuned over the next few days for updates on this.

50 comments:

  1. All we've gotten so far is a few thundershowers east of Lake Winnipeg this afternoon. Looks like the risk for the city of Winnipeg is over as it has now shifted to our east.

    ReplyDelete
  2. A rather cloudy day today in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. Should still manage to reach around 19-20°C in Winnipeg. Cloudy start to tomorrow but we should see some clearing before afternoon rolls in, with highs near 19-20°C again. Sunnier to start on Friday the 13th with increasing cloud late day. A warmer day expected as well with a high around 22-23°C. Still looks like an unsettled weekend ahead with chances for rain. Uncertainty on timing, locations and amounts remains.

    ReplyDelete
  3. JJ, what are the odds of us getting severe weather once late June rolls in , I'm thinking like in a few weeks or a week or so close to that. You have any idea? Thank's, lets hope this is the end to the Winnipeg Perimeter sheild. :D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Climatologically speaking, the thunderstorm season technically should really start ramping up in mid to late June. What will happen in late June this year is too early to say. All I can say is that things don't look overly exciting on the storm-front for at least the next week.

      Delete
  4. Note that all the updates to the Winnipeg section of the record books are now finished. All graphs to be added have been added, including all the thunderstorm record pages. The 1981-2010 normals page has new tables and stats along with a climatogram as well. Daily snow depth records are also a new addition to the Winnipeg section.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Awesome set of records jj. I was surprised to see 2007 was not one of the top30.warmest winters or springs. I was also surprised by the 30 year running average that there has not been any significant change since the LIA aka the last 111 years. Is that also correct for the other cities?



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Our winters are averaging about as warm as they ever have since records began in the 1870's, about 4°C warmer than 110 years ago. Springs certainly seem to have stabilised in the last decade with no significant change in the normal, but they are also averaging as warm as they ever have, just over 2°C warmer than 110 years ago.

      The only other city that I have the monthly temperature records graphs is for Calgary. Brandon is the next planned for the next few weeks. All I've got left for Brandon is the quality checking of the data.

      Delete
    2. Thanks jj. Can I conclude correctly from your chart that Wpg's 30 year moving average Normal mean (now) 23 years after Mt Pintubo 1991, has returned to the warmer period beginning 25 years after Krakatoa 108 years earlier (1883)? or as you put it 110 years later.

      Delete
    3. The eruption in 1991 didn't have nearly as big of an impact as Krakatoa. The 1990's were still tied for second warmest decade here. For some reason, it was the 1960's and 1970's that were generally cold decades for today's standards in Winnipeg.

      Delete
    4. Could that be because Pinatubo didnt have Krakatoa's supporting cast of North and Central American and Icelandic Eruptions
      Grimsvotn 1873 VEI 3 Iceland
      Askja 1874 Viti 1875 VEI 5 Iceland
      Krakatoa 1883 VEI 6 Java
      Grimsvotn 1902-4 VEI 4 Iceland
      Pelee 1902 VEI 5 Martinique Caribean
      Santa Maria 1902 VEI 5 Guatamala
      Katmai (Nova Rupta) 1912 VEI 6 Alaska
      Heckla 1913 Iceland
      Katla 1918 VEI 4+ Iceland
      and at least 11 other Icelandic VEI 2 or greater eruptions between 1876 and 1910
      I believe that, and of course Krakatoa are given credit for the little ice age. returning in late 19th century.

      Perhaps I'm reading your record book graph wrong. (halfway down the page of 30 yr Moving Average Temperature )?

      http://wxrecordbooks.weebly.com/warmest-years.html

      Delete
  6. Sun came out early today thankfully, so it's turning out to be yet another beautiful day. Should reach around 21°C or so. It will be breezy out of the north however.

    Bright start to tomorrow but clouds increase in the afternoon. Should manage to reach 23-24°C. There is a chance of showers in the evening.

    Now, the weekend is still a little uncertain at this time. There is the potential for a significant rain event in parts of southern Manitoba. Both days will have a chance for rainfall. Models are disagreeing on timing and location at this time so wont get into much detail until tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Looking like a beautiful day again today.... enjoy it while it lasts! Despite skies clouding up this afternoon, we should manage to reach 24-25°C. Rain moves in tonight sometime between mid evening and early overnight. Although some thunder is possible, it is not very likely. 5-10 mm not out of the question by tomorrow morning.

    Things should remain cloudy through much of the day tomorrow with some showers and drizzle at times. Can't rule out some thunder in southwestern Manitoba and along the US border. I'm doubtful Winnipeg will get any thunder, but can't rule it out completely.

    Sunday is still a question mark when it comes to rainfall placement. A significant rain event is possible (15-40 mm) somewhere in southern Manitoba... too early to say where exactly.

    Another major system is possible mid or late week next week. Not all models agreeing on this so things could still change.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Jj Is that graphic this morning showing the beginning of the perimeter shield at??&
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=fgf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One can never rule out the Perimeter shields being in action with any system around here...

      Delete
    2. I'm not superstitious but next Friday the thirteenth would you please number the comments from 1to 12 And then skip the next.one.or start a new post.?lol

      Delete
  9. Looks like our first wave of rain will come soon, likely early or mid this evening, a little earlier than what was expected this morning. 5-10 mm seems like a good range by tomorrow morning. However, this is not the main event. The main rainfall would be on Sunday. Still a question mark just how far west the rain will push though. In between, can't rule out a few thunderstorms south of the lakes tomorrow, perhaps even around Winnipeg if we're lucky. They'd be weak with the main threat being the heavy rain.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Still looking like we won't see thunder ,JJ?? If not, will there be any risk sunday??
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the chance for thunder tonight in Winnipeg is pretty low, maybe a rumble but I'm doubtful.. Better chance for us tomorrow. For Sunday, I'm a little doubtful right now for Winnipeg.

      Delete
  11. Click on my name for a cool model viewing site call "spotwx"!

    ReplyDelete
  12. An unsettled day with cloudy skies and a few showers at times today. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder but the risk is low so nothing to look foreward to really.

    Still uncertain how far west the rain will push tomorrow. Seems to be a battle between the US models and the Canadian models with the GEM canadian model further west (giving Winnipeg 30+ mm of rain) than the NAM and the GFS US models (which only give up to 10 mm at most right now). Either way, it looks likely at this time that Winnipeg will see at least -some- rain tomorrow, question is just how much. Will provide updates here today when available. Note that tomorrow just so happens to be the lowest rainfall record day of June. Old record high rainfall is 18.3 mm in 1928. If things push west enough, we may have a shot at that record!

    Sun comes back on Monday and we should reach 21-22°C or so. Things get unsettled again Tuesday-Wednesday with a chance for storms.

    I've also got some good news. Consensus is growing that we may see the return of warmer weather next week and beyond. Too early to say how warm and how long it would last and what it would mean for t-storm potential, but it is something to look foreward to.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Starting to see some thunderstorms develop west and southwest of Winnipeg this morning. Don't be surprised to hear some thunder in the next couple hours if we're lucky! Note that any storm today is expected to be fairly weak with heavy downpours the main threat.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Going to have watch for what develops south of the border this afternoon. There is the potential for our first wave of significant rainfall this evening and overnight across southern Manitoba, especially in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. Embedded thunderstorms could give locally high amounts. Will keep an eye on it and continue to provide updates when needed today. Second wave of heavy rains would be tomorrow in the PM hours.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hearing some thunder in river heights.. and looking at the radar & lighting detection, it looks like a -bit- of a thundersorm is coming in from the west or south west.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Storms are missing us here in south St Vital, I've only had a few drops so far. Looks like a good rain in west-central Winnipeg. About 4 mm in Charleswood as of 1:50 pm

      Delete
    2. Was just coming out of co-op and was outside for a few seconds before getting into my car, and i was soaking wet! Not raining nearly hard now that i'm back home drying off!

      Delete
    3. Another bit of heavier rain coming through.. Charles Wood already up to 7.4 mm with these storms!

      Delete
  16. Just saw some cloud-to-ground lighting!!! bring on the storms!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Rainfall totals as of 3 pm (since midnight):

    In Winnipeg:
    North side of city, north/northeast of downtown 15-25 mm according to wunderground.com stations
    Airport ~12-14 mm or so
    Charleswood 10.9 mm
    The Forks ~6 mm or so
    South St Vital (me) ~4.1 mm

    Other:
    Beausejour 32.2 mm
    Starbuck 13.9 mm
    Selkirk 11.6 mm
    Elm Creek 9.9 mm

    Heaviest amounts so far this afternoon seem to have been in the north end of Winnipeg and then north and northeast of the city with 15-30 mm recorded by wunderground.com weather stations. Beausejour is the highest I've found with over 30 mm today according to Manitoba Agriculture.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I actually got 2.6 mm today. I accidentally combined yesterday's rain with today's.

      Delete
    2. I personally have gotten 11.3 mm so far today in River heights.

      Delete
  18. Looks like we should see rain with possibly embedded thunderstorms move in sometime this evening in Winnipeg from North Dakota. Rain could be heavy at times, especially if we get some thunderstorms embedded with 10-20 mm not out of the question tonight. Locally higher amounts wherever there are thunderstorms possible.

    For tomorrow, it's just too close to call for Winnipeg right now. We look to be right near the edge of the heavier rains which is making the rain forecast for the city tricky. All I can say right now is that it at least looks showery and don't be surprised to see some heavier rains if things push further west.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JJ, I don't think you need to mention we will be on the edge of the heavier precipitation - when are we not with these systems?

      Delete
    2. No kidding!

      As for the latest, a line of downpours and perhaps developing t-storms will be moving into the city very soon ahead of the main line of rain.

      Delete
  19. Thunderstorm threat is easing off now for Winnipeg. Now we're just left with some shower activity for the remainder of the evening. Scattered showers remain possible overnight and tomorrow morning with a small chance of a rumble of thunder... all before the main rain event tomorrow afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  20. JJ feel free to have a look at my blog i changed some things a lot of good is coming out of it, any suggestions?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Well, it's looking like a soaker of a day today... It appears some models were just a tad too far east with the rain shield for this morning south of the border. As a result, I'm feeling good that Winnipeg will see another good rainfall today, likely starting later this morning. I'm expecting 10-20 mm, but there definitely could be more if the rain is quite heavy and longer lasting.

    A large amount of rain fell last night however. I've received about 24 mm here in south St Vital since yesterday evening, bringing this storm's total so far to about 28.5 mm. With those thunderstorms in the north end yesterday, they've seen locally over 40 mm. The airport has seen about 37 mm.

    Speaking of the airport, there is the potential for a record rainfall today. Old record is 18.3 mm in 1928 and with already 8 mm so far today, a record is possible. I will have a post tomorrow summarizing this rainfall event, including a map of rainfall totals across southern Manitoba.

    As for tomorrow, it doesn't look as sunny as it did yesterday with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Nonetheless, we should reach around 21°C or so. A bit more sun on Tuesday and we should reach around 23°C or so. Thunderstorms don't look likely for Tuesday-Wednesday and we may have to wait until at least Thursday to see something in Winnipeg. Too early to gurantee this yet though.

    ReplyDelete
  22. 2-day (June 14-15) rainfall total so far as of 10 am this morning:

    Beausejour 59.7 mm
    Selkirk 40.3 mm
    Ste. Rose (east of Dauphin) 32.5 mm
    Elm Creek 34.7 mm
    Starbuck 30.3 mm
    Portage 23.0 mm

    All according to Manitoba Agriculture.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Already up to 13.5 mm since this morning here in south St Vital as of 1 pm. Looks like the south end has had the most so far this time. The airport has only had about 5-6 mm since this morning as of 1 pm. So overall, it looks likely there will be some pockets of 20+ mm in the city by this evening.

    ReplyDelete
  24. JJ,
    Despite the lack rain at YWG airport compared to other parts of the city, do you think we still have a shot at breaking the daily rainfall record today?
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The airport has had about 17-18 mm of rain since midnight and as a result, it's pretty much a guarantee now that we will be breaking a rainfall record today.

      Delete
    2. I'll be updating the ''today's records'' section hourly today to keep you up to date with the latest record rainfall amount at the airport.

      Delete
    3. With 21 mm so far today, we have now officially broken a rainfall record for today. I'm up to 31 mm here so far today since midnight, 49 mm since Friday.

      Delete
  25. Apparently The Perimeter Shield doesnot work on weekends starting o Friday the Thirteenth.lol

    ReplyDelete
  26. Flooding is becoming a problem in northwestern Ontario these days. The Rainy River is at its highest level since 1950 according to CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/fort-frances-rainy-river-couchiching-continue-flood-watch-1.2676328

    Northwestern Ontario just had a significant rain last week with a 2-day total of 80.8 mm in Fort Frances June 11-12. About 175 mm has fallen there so far this June, including what has fallen so far up to 3 pm today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hence the name "RAINY river"!

      Delete
  27. 36.5 mm of rain at the airport today so far... so we easily shattered the old rainfall record of 18.3 mm in 1928 today. Looks like generally 35-50 mm across the city today; generally 60-75 mm if we include yesterday. Even higher totals to the north and east of the city including Beausejour at 80 mm of rain so far since yesterday according to Manitoba Agriculture. I will have a map tomorrow.

    Rain should end sometime late this evening or around midnight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanx for all the updates. Next time I'll come here first.

      Delete
  28. Will have a summary post with a map of rainfall totals later this morning...

    As for the forecast, although we're starting quite sunny this morning, we will see some clouds increase later this morning and early afternoon to give way to partly or mostly cloudy skies at times this afternoon. We should manage to reach about 21-22°C.

    Tomorrow, I've dropped my expectations for highs to around 21-22°C. I have a feeling that cool north-northeast breeze may limit our highs a bit. We'll see what happens... Either way, it looks quite sunny tomorrow.

    Wednesday is when things start to get interesting again. We should see some sun and some cloud Wednesday as the warmth returns. We should manage to reach 26-28°C. There is huge uncertainty about what will happen with a system south of the border Wednesday to Friday with wide differences in models. As a result, it's very difficult to say when Winnipeg could get some thunderstorm activity at this point. We'll have to wait and see at this point.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I must note however, that a severe thunderstorm event is possible in southwestern Manitoba late Wednesday as storms develop in Saskatchewan and North Dakota and push into southwestern Manitoba. If the NAM weather model were to be the closest to reality, I may issue a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for southwestern Manitoba tomorrow or Wednesday morning depending on how uncertain things still are tomorrow.

      Delete
  29. Yeah, it does look like there will some severe thunderstorm chances later this week. Also there are hints of hotter summer weather for next week as well. That would be nice. It's time for summer to return.

    ReplyDelete