Just two more chilly days to get through and then things will get better! Still breezy out of the northwest today under cloudy skies and highs in the high single digits, a monotonous weather pattern which has been with us since late last week. At least tomorrow, the sun should be with us, but it will still be chilly with highs around 10°C.
Long weekend forecast:
The weather pattern changes tomorrow night as a strong southerly flow sets up over southern Manitoba. It will be very windy in the afternoon on Saturday with southerly winds up to 40 km/h and gusts up to 60 km/h. Should see highs in the mid teens, closer to normal for this time of year. Mid teens are expected to continue Sunday and Monday. There will be a slight chance of showers on Sunday, but I'm not expecting much rain overall this weekend. Winds will be calmer Sunday and Monday as well, so overall, looks like a pleasant long weekend ahead!Right now, there are no signs of prolonged cool downs through to the end of October. In fact, long range guidance suggests a warmer than normal second half of October overall. The following map is just one forecast for temperature anomalies for the October 17 to 24 period. Have not seen this much agreement on above normal temperatures in a long time!
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| Temperature anomaly forecast for the October 17 to 24 period. NAEFS model. |
On the 10 th of Oct 1955 we recorded a temp of 26.7 C Beginning Oct 31 the next 31 days produced 100 mm of snow on its way to a record 250mm for the callendar year and also by april1956 the winter season 55 - 56
ReplyDeleteAre we looking to anything like that this Nov and winter Jj.
I have no idea what winter will bring snow-wise, it's just way too early to make any confident forecast on that front. Personally, my best guess and personal thought is for a winter that is closer to normal. I highly doubt this winter will be as bad as last, as it is quite unlikely to get two straight winters that are that bad. Same goes with a very late start to spring in April, statistically it isn't very likely we'll see a 3rd straight year with such a late spring. We'll see....
DeleteSpectacular day on the way today, if you ignore the wind. Should reach 16-17°C under mainly sunny skies. Cloudy with chance for rain tomorrow and a little bit cooler. Mid teens and sun again on Monday. Looking very mild mid week at this point, with highs close to 20°C looking possible so far. Looks like we may cool down late week, but right now any cool down looks brief. The second half of October continues to look warmer than normal on average.
ReplyDeleteA little surprising early this morning, but some weak thunderstorm activity is occurring in and around the city early this morning.
ReplyDeleteYeah, got woken up by a decently loud rumble of thunder at 5:30 am. Not much, but nice to hear again!
DeleteShowers to rebegin soon in Winnipeg this morning. Not much today, perhaps 2-5 mm. Winds will calm this morning.
ReplyDeleteSun comes back tomorrow and we should see light winds again. Mild with highs around 16-17°C. Similar on Tuesday, albeit possibly a bit more cloud.
Strong southerly flow returns Wednesday with southerly winds similar in strength to yesterday. Will usher in very mild air with highs approaching 20°C possible if we get enough sunshine.
System on Thursday could bring some rain but still mild. Cool down late week, but it should be brief. Models continuing with above normal trend for second half of month. NAEFS currently has near certain chances (90-100%) of above normal temperatures overall in the October 20 to 27 period. Cannot remember the last time we've had certainty that high on warmth.
Break in the cloud throughout the western RRV this morning. Hopefully that doesn't fill in this afternoon, as we could end up getting some sun later this afternoon otherwise. Expect highs to be a little higher if we manage to get some sun.
ReplyDeleteSpectacular again today with nothing but sun and highs getting around 18-20°C. Even warmer tomorrow with highs around 20-22°C. It will be quite windy from the south tomorrow however, similar to last Saturday.
ReplyDeleteLow pressure system moves through on Thursday. Winds will veer to westerly sometime midday or afternoon. Showers will be possible, but right now I don't see widespread rains. Any rain should be brief. We should manage to get some sunshine. Depending on how much we can get, highs in the high teens may be possible again.
Much colder behind the system for Friday with highs only in the high single digits. Hard to say right now how long the cool down will last, but a more significant warmup is expected sometime mid-late next week.
Yeah and the long range going into early November is very encouraging I must say. I'd say for the first time in a very long time models are very good agreement that this above normal pattern will continue for sometime to come and I must say it's about time. Obviously there will some pockets of cooler air from time to time but the warmer pattern will be the dominant one.
ReplyDeleteI'm anticipating a high around 21-22°C today, a little warmer than most forecasts. Models have been underestimating highs significantly in the last few days so I expect today to be the same story. Quite windy out of the south.
ReplyDeleteAnother mild one tomorrow before we cloud up in the afternoon. Should reach high teens before the cloud dominates. Chance of a shower in the afternoon before the main rain event comes in the evening and overnight. Although the chance is quite small, I won't rule out a rumble of thunder in the afternoon. Any thunder should be isolated in nature so it's more likely we'll see nothing. 5-15 mm possible tomorrow night.
Cloudy with possibly some light showers and drizzle on Friday. Blustery out of the northwest and we'll likely only reach around 6-7°C for a high.
Nice start today, but we'll be clouding up later with chance of showers this afternoon and especially this evening. 2-5 mm looks like a more likely range right now for tonight.
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