Saturday, 16 June 2012

A Rainy Pattern

    Heavy rains this morning have dumped 15 to 25 mm of rain in general in the Winnipeg area. More is to come as it is going to be quite unsettled over the next few days.
    A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in many areas, especially in southeastern Manitoba, this afternoon and evening. They will be scattered and isolated, so some areas may get very little rain, while others may get an additional 5 to 10 mm.
     After a break tonight with some clearing, things cloud up again tomorrow afternoon. This is where things get tricky. Depending on how much sun and warmth we can get, and how much instability is around, things could get nasty in southern Manitoba by afternoon and evening. Some severe storms will be possible thanks to abundant shear and an llj. Main threats would be large hail, damaging winds and lots of rainfall. Even if we don't get the storms, it looks rainy in the evening.
     Monday looks like another unsettled day with scattered showers and storms thanks to daytime heating. Some of the storms Monday could be severe in southeastern Manitoba thanks to the potential for high instability and moisture.
     To continue with the idea of unsettled weather, things are looking unsettled for much of the week with many opportunities for rain and storms. Some models are hinting at a major rainfall mid-week with the current GEM showing over 40 mm of rain. It is too early to confirm that, however it is clear that it will be an unsettled week ahead. Models hint at some drying out and warming late in the week and next weekend, however it is too early to confirm it.


  1. Tornado watch issued in the Interlake; Arborg, Hecla, Fisher Branch, Gypsumville, Ashern areas, to be more specific.
    The types of funnel clouds and tornadoes today are cold-core funnels. These types of funnels usually don't have the energy to touch the ground, however a couple can briefly touchdown over a very small area. These types of funnels are quite unpredictable as well, and can form quickly and without warning.

  2. Storm potential really doesn't look impressive today in southern Manitoba. A few isolated storms are possible, especially in the southwest. An isolated storm may reach severe limits, however instability is low, heating is unnimpressive with lots of cloud cover and the bulk of the llj is to our south. This will keep most of the severe weather south of the border.
    We may get a few storms in the RRV and southeast Manitoba this evening, however again it does not look very impressive. The closer to the US border, the better.

  3. Severe thunderstorm warnings continue around Altona, Gretna and Plum Coulee at this hour. Marble to golf ball sized hail is possible, along with frequent lightning and flooding rains. Take cover!