Heavy rains this morning have dumped 15 to 25 mm of rain in general in the Winnipeg area. More is to come as it is going to be quite unsettled over the next few days.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in many areas, especially in southeastern Manitoba, this afternoon and evening. They will be scattered and isolated, so some areas may get very little rain, while others may get an additional 5 to 10 mm.
After a break tonight with some clearing, things cloud up again tomorrow afternoon. This is where things get tricky. Depending on how much sun and warmth we can get, and how much instability is around, things could get nasty in southern Manitoba by afternoon and evening. Some severe storms will be possible thanks to abundant shear and an llj. Main threats would be large hail, damaging winds and lots of rainfall. Even if we don't get the storms, it looks rainy in the evening.
Monday looks like another unsettled day with scattered showers and storms thanks to daytime heating. Some of the storms Monday could be severe in southeastern Manitoba thanks to the potential for high instability and moisture.
To continue with the idea of unsettled weather, things are looking unsettled for much of the week with many opportunities for rain and storms. Some models are hinting at a major rainfall mid-week with the current GEM showing over 40 mm of rain. It is too early to confirm that, however it is clear that it will be an unsettled week ahead. Models hint at some drying out and warming late in the week and next weekend, however it is too early to confirm it.