|Photo credit CBC|
Today is a hot and humid day in southern Manitoba, with highs near 30°C in the city of Winnipeg and humidex values in the mid thirties. This along with a cold front near the Saskatchewan border and high instability is providing the risk for some strong storms in southwestern Manitoba this afternoon. These storms will have the potential to be severe with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds, excessive rainfall due to the slow motion of the storms and even a small risk of an isolated tornado.
Rains and storms moving north from North Dakota this evening and overnight will be bringing significant rainfall from the US Border up to the Swan River area. Locally up to 75 mm of rain will be possible in the Riding Mountains area from now to tomorrow morning. As a result of this potential, Environment Canada has issued a rainfall warning in some areas, calling for 40 to 70 mm of rain:
|Rainfall warning for tonight. 40 to 70 mm possible.|
Here in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba, you could say we will likely miss the worst of the storms, however the potential is still there. The best chance will be later in the evening and overnight. Locally heavy rain will be possible, however storms should remain non-severe in this area. A good light show is not out of the question.
Lingering showers and storms are still possible in the morning and to start the afternoon, before things begin to clear later in the afternoon and evening Friday.
The real action is Saturday. Uncertainty still exists, so it is recommended you stay tuned for updates as Saturday could feature the first significant severe weather outbreak of the year. High shear is possible Saturday which brings in some concern about the potential for tornadic activity in northern North Dakota and in southern Manitoba. Due to very high instability and moisture, very large hail will be possible as well. SPC in the US has us in a hatched risk already for Saturday, which signifies a 10% + probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. This risk could be upgraded in the future if needed.
A cool down will take place behind this system for next week. Highs in the high teens look possible, which will be quite different from what we've gotten used to the past week.
A list of things you can do to prepare for a severe weather outbreak here.