Saturday, 25 August 2012

Cooler, But Not For Long

     Things are cooler, drier and windier in southern Manitoba today, all thanks to the passage of a cold front that brought the thunderstorms last night. Temperatures today will max out around 24 or 25°C, and 22 or 23°C tomorrow. There will also be a chance for showers tomorrow morning with the wrap-around of the low pressure system.

     This cool down will be brief however. After a seasonal Monday, temperatures are expected to heat up big time again Tuesday through to Thursday. If you believe the ECMWF model, highs in the mid to high thirties would certainly be a possibility mid week. The model brings in 850 mb temperatures well into the twenties. I will be keeping an eye on this as the days get closer.

ECMWF model brings in very hot weather to Manitoba mid week
     This hot finish to August will likely make this August our 14th consecutive above normal month. Crazy!

     Normals for this time of year are generally around 24°C for highs and 11°C for lows.


  1. Looks like we'll manage to get to 24-25°C today with more sunshine.

  2. NAM is going with the ECMWF for Wednesday. It is giving Winnipeg a high of 36°C, while areas in the western RRV and closer to the US Border would get even warmer near 38°C (100°F)! Whether or not it will actually get this hot will be determined in the next few days.

  3. NAM was giving Winnipeg a high of 38°C for Wednesday, earlier this morning. In the morning update, it downgraded that to a 36°C, but still shows highs near 38°C in the western RRV and close to the US Border. ECMWF also maintains the mid-high thirty highs. It will be an interesting day to say the least!

    To get to 35-38°C, we would need little cloud cover, low dewpoints and a southwesterly wind. So far, cloud cover doesn't look like a big issue, and dewpoints according to the NAM are expected to drop in the afternoon to the low teens and high single digits. However not all models show this (GEM is one, but I personally am not trusting this model much lately - has been doing poorely lately).

    IF we get trapped in a southeasterly wind, and if cloud cover is more abundant with higher dewpoints, then highs would likely be stuck around 32-34°C.

    We'll see!

  4. Old record Wednesday is 36.1°C in 1972, so we will be within reach of breaking that record.

    Also of note, highs near and even a tad above 40°C are possible in North Dakota. Wow!

  5. Vote for how hot Winnipeg will get Wednesday! Poll closes Wednesday morning at 10 AM.

  6. Cloud cover looking less of an issue tomorrow. Rather, dewpoints are the bigger issue. NAM has risen dewpoints from what it said yesterday. With a stiff south wind (not greatest for heating) and higher dewpoints (in the low-mid teens), I'm thinking 34-35°C is a good target tomorrow. high thirty temperatures will be hard to reach tomorrow under these conditions.

  7. Not much has changed regarding tomorrow. It's really a wait and see game as it is a little uncertain as to how low dewpoints will get in the afternoon. Basically, the lower the dewpoints, the higher the temperatures. IF dewpoints do drop into the low teens, or even lower, then highs between 36 and 38°C would be possible locally. However, there is still the fact that we will be seeing a stiff south wind, which is not as favourable as a southwest or west wind in the RRV...
    Can't wait for tomorrow to see what happens!

    Interesting to note also that we may be talking about more 30 degree temperatures Friday and Saturday as the ridge rebuilds over us. Hard to believe we're almost into September!