After looking at the models for a couple hours late this afternoon, I have prepared my own prediction for snowfall amounts for some of the most major cities in southern Manitoba with this system:
|Predicted total snowfall amounts|
|Portage la Prairie||15-20 cm|
Keep in mind these are the totals that I am personally predicting to fall throughout the entire event (so from now to Tuesday afternoon). And by the way, for the first time I invite everyone to post their own predictions via a comment under this post. I am very interested in seeing what others think as this is generally a fairly complicated and moisture-laden system. The Red River Valley's forecast, including Winnipeg's, is fairly complex with this system as we will be right on the edge between the lowest and highest amounts.
Luckily, temperatures and winds are not expected to be a massive issue such as was the case during the blizzard we had in February. Temperatures are expected to remain steady in the mid minus single digits in the Winnipeg area throughout Monday and only drop to around -10°C or so Tuesday morning. Winds overnight tonight in Winnipeg will be from the east around 20 km/h with gusts over 30 km/h at times. By tomorrow morning winds will strengthen to about 30 km/h and gusts up to 50 km/h at times, still from the east. These winds will continue in the afternoon before tapering off ever so slightly in the evening. They really wont calm down until Tuesday morning. As a result of these moderate winds, blowing snow will be possible in open areas at times, but not enough for blizzard conditions. Drifting snow will be an obvious hazard. The strongest winds in southern Manitoba are expected in southwestern Manitoba with north/northeast winds of 40 gusting to 60 km/h Monday. Unforunately, this is where the heaviest snow is expected so travel will certainly not be advised. Areas along the US border in southeastern Manitoba are expecting winds from the southeast at around 40 km/h tomorrow morning, weakening slightly in the afternoon.
In general, heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected along and south of the Trans-Canada and west of highway 75 with 15-25 cm as a generalisation, but there could be localized higher amounts. I do have to mention one thing however. Due to the easterly or northeasterly winds, upsloping up the Riding mountains and the escarpment will give these areas slightly enhanced amounts.