Sunday 3 March 2013

Major Winter Storm to Welcome the Work Week in Manitoba

     Well, it looks like southern Manitoba will be hit by yet another major snow storm. A vigorous Alberta Clipper is already bringing in a band of light snow through southwestern portions of the province early this evening including in Brandon. Snowfall will continue to move eastward and intensify tonight.
     After looking at the models for a couple hours late this afternoon, I have prepared my own prediction for snowfall amounts for some of the most major cities in southern Manitoba with this system:

Predicted total snowfall amounts
Dauphin 5-10 cm
Brandon 15-20 cm
Portage la Prairie 15-20 cm
Morden 20-25 cm
Winnipeg 10-15 cm
Steinbach 10-15 cm


     Keep in mind these are the totals that I am personally predicting to fall throughout the entire event (so from now to Tuesday afternoon). And by the way, for the first time I invite everyone to post their own predictions via a comment under this post. I am very interested in seeing what others think as this is generally a fairly complicated and moisture-laden system. The Red River Valley's forecast, including Winnipeg's, is fairly complex with this system as we will be right on the edge between the lowest and highest amounts.

     As for the timeline, as I mentioned snowfall has already begun in southwestern and western Manitoba, and this snowfall will continue to intensify tonight. Here in the Red River Valley, light snow is set to begin late evening or early overnight and really begin to intensify mid or late overnight. Periods of snow will continue throughout the entire day Monday and not taper off until Monday night at the earliest. Areas closer to the US and Ontario borders in southeastern Manitoba may have to wait until Tuesday morning for the snowfall to taper off. Of course, this is assuming the more easterly track of the system is correct. If the system is further west than expected, snowfall amounts will be lower in the RRV and timing will be only a tad different.

     Luckily, temperatures and winds are not expected to be a massive issue such as was the case during the blizzard we had in February. Temperatures are expected to remain steady in the mid minus single digits in the Winnipeg area throughout Monday and only drop to around -10°C or so Tuesday morning. Winds overnight tonight in Winnipeg will be from the east around 20 km/h with gusts over 30 km/h at times. By tomorrow morning winds will strengthen to about 30 km/h and gusts up to 50 km/h at times, still from the east. These winds will continue in the afternoon before tapering off ever so slightly in the evening. They really wont calm down until Tuesday morning. As a result of these moderate winds, blowing snow will be possible in open areas at times, but not enough for blizzard conditions. Drifting snow will be an obvious hazard. The strongest winds in southern Manitoba are expected in southwestern Manitoba with north/northeast winds of 40 gusting to 60 km/h Monday. Unforunately, this is where the heaviest snow is expected so travel will certainly not be advised. Areas along the US border in southeastern Manitoba are expecting winds from the southeast at around 40 km/h tomorrow morning, weakening slightly in the afternoon.

     In general, heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected along and south of the Trans-Canada and west of highway 75 with 15-25 cm as a generalisation, but there could be localized higher amounts. I do have to mention one thing however. Due to the easterly or northeasterly winds, upsloping up the Riding mountains and the escarpment will give these areas slightly enhanced amounts.

14 comments:

  1. All's going according to plan for Winnipeg at this point. I'm still thinking 10-15 cm is a good range right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with 15-20 cm by tomorrow morning if we remain under the heavier bands.

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  2. Cocorahs observer in Morden reported 9 cm as of about 4:30 am or so, therefore 20-25 cm looks like an easy target down there. 25-35 cm will be possible in that area.

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  3. I took several measurements around the yard here in River Park South now that the snow has stopped for a bit and it looks like about 6 cm so far as of 11:15 AM. Higher amounts reported in Charleswood with 8 cm as of 10:45 AM. The city keeps getting under these little blobs of dryness which is stopping the snowfall periodically. Heaviest amounts are west of the city with already 10-25 cm measured (according to Rob's Blog)!!

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  4. A blob of dry air from the east has moved over the northern RRV including over Winnipeg again. These interruptions in the snow will significantly limit our snowfall amounts if we don't get under another snow band soon. Areas just to the southwest of the city, between Oak Bluff and Carman are being hammered. 30 cm+ looking very likely there at this point.

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  5. For those who wondered, we wont be breaking a record for daily snowfall today in Winnipeg. Unfortunately, March 4, 1935 was the biggest daily snowfall on record for March at 38.1 cm.

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  6. Snow depth at my place in south St Vital is now 44 cm as of 4 PM. That's a jump from 37 cm yesterday. Somewhere between 8 or 9 cm has fallen so far (only went out to measure depth, I wont measure total snowfall until the snow begins to calm down because it's coming down quite heavily still.)

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  7. Today also so happens to be the anniversary of the great March 1966 blizzard when 35 cm of snow and winds over 100 km/h caused havoc. A video of pictures from that blizzard by CTV can be viewed here:
    http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.1181312

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  8. Got family in Brandon telling me that the drifts are up to their windows. Quite the storm compared to here!

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  9. 11.5 cm at my place in River Park South now as of 10 pm. General totals between 10 and 14 cm across the city from what I've seen.

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  10. Periods of light snow will continue through the rest of the evening and most of the overnight. We shouldn't get a whole lot more however, 1-3 cm most likely. Looks like the 10-15 cm forecast for the city faired well, at least so far.

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  11. I'll have a summary of the the storm this afternoon. Meanwhile, light snow will continue this morning but should be gone this afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see some breaks in the cloud this afternoon as well.
    Attention will now be going towards late Thursday when another clipper system is set to move through the province. It doesn't look nearly as significant as yesterday's, so I'm not trying to scare anyone here. It may even miss areas along and south of the Trans-Canada. The bulk of the snow is expected in central Manitoba at this point. Nonetheless, 1-3 cm will be possible down here.

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  12. And by the way, I plan to add Calgary to my record books in the very near future (in the next 2 weeks)

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  13. Only just got home, things took longer than expected today. Therefore my summary will have to wait until this evening. Sorry for the inconvenience!

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  14. Grand total at my place for the storm was 15 cm. Snow depth is now 51 cm.

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