Friday 17 October 2014

Fabulous Week Ahead Next Week

     Much cooler and cloudier today as we briefly return to brisk northwest winds. Luckily, this will only last 1 day and temperatures will start rebounding this weekend. Should start fairly cloudy again tomorrow, but we should see some sun in the afternoon.

     Warm flow returns Sunday and we should reach mid teens. In fact, the entire week is expected to be at least 5°C above normal, with highs in the mid to high teens. Some days could even get close to, or exceed 20°C. Records next week are still in the mid 20's, so so far it doesn't appear we're talking about record heat, but that could still change. Luckily, no end is currently in sight for the above normal temperature trend.

     This late month warm spell will ensure that October will finish well above the normal mean of 5.1°C. This is the 3rd consecutive warmer than normal month. Nice to see we've finally broken the cold trend, at least for now.

17 comments:

  1. Heres a link to a site with long term Weather forecast models and particularly the current Hurricane awebcams and data of storms predicted path 7 to Ten days ago still holds truee with a cat 3 hurricane Gonzalo hitting Bermuda today and Anna still on course for the Hawaian Island chain later this weekend.
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2833&page=1&theprefset=BLOGCOMMENTS&theprefvalue=100

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cool with highs around 9-10°C today. Southerly winds will increase this afternoon up to 30 km/h. Should see a bit of sun at times, but cloud will win over.

    Lots of sun tomorrow and the warmth begins with highs around 15-17°C likely. A tad cooler Monday around 13-15°C. Warmth really cranks in on Tuesday with highs approaching 20°C possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looks like the cloud will not clear in time this afternoon to get much warmer. Looks like another day stuck in the mid single digits.

      Delete
  3. I suspect that E'C's forecasted highs for this week are underestimated much like the past week. Highs of 17C seem too low especially on some days where 20C will be possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, most models in general have been having a hard time handling these warm spells this Octobers so far with difficulties predicting daytime highs at the surface. Again, I'm still expecting 15-16°C tomorrow and 12-14°C now for Monday and high teens to close to 20°C Tuesday. We will be close to the edge of the warmth for Tuesday so don't be surprised to see things a little cooler if things stay to the west.

      Delete
  4. Not much changed for next few days. Still expecting 15-17°C high today. Winds will veer to northwesterly midday and be around 20-30 km/h, so a bit breezy today. Light wind tomorrow and cooler, only reaching low teens.

    Very warm day expected Tuesday with lots of sun. Tricky forecast for highs though, because it's hard to say just how much models are underestimating highs. I'm calling for 18-19°C right now, certainly higher than other public forecasts. We'll see what happens... It will be quite breezy out of the south too.

    A tad cooler Wednesday. Chance for showers Wednesday night. Above normal conditions continue until at least the weekend. There are hints of cooling down early next week.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Managed to get all the way to 17.6°C yesterday, much warmer than models were indicating. Considering how warm it got yesterday, I don't see why we wouldn't get at least as warm tomorrow. I'm still keeping my ''optimistic'' forecast of 18-20°C for tomorrow, despite much more pessimistic public forecasts.

    Tough temperature forecast for Wednesday due to cloud. Weak system moves in, bringing lots of cloud and likely some shower activity in the afternoon and evening. There could even be a rumble of thunder, though, the risk is quite low for us to actually get something. Highs in the mid teens seem most likely at this point. It will also be quite windy, both tomorrow and Wednesday with gusts up to 50 km/h likely.

    Back to sun Thursday with highs around 16-18°C.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Visible satellite this morning reveals an extensive area of low cloud through the RRV and Interlake. Don't think we're giong to see much sun today so ignore the ''clearing this morning'' forecast I issued earlier this morning. We may end up only reaching high single digits as well if we don't clear out at all later this afternoon. Looks like we're being highjacked of a nice day.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Looks like that stiff SE wind today will prevent us of warmer than it could potentially be. Even a high of 17C looks like a struggle today.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Models really struggling with how far east the warm air pushes this week. Looks like we'll max out around 17°C or so today at the airport. What had looked like a 18-19°C day on Thursday with this morning's NAM has now taken a turn to cooler temperatures as we stay in cooler northwesterly flow. Looking more like 13-16°C or so in this afternoon's update. Oh well, at least it's above normal!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Weak elevated thunderstorms have materialized in to our west and southwest this morning. Looks like Winnipeg will have a chance of some thunder later this morning as a result. These are very weak storms with very little rainfall associated with them. Better than nothing though! Tough temperature forecast for today due to uncertainties on sunshine amounts and rainfall. We could see more rain late in the day. Nonetheless, considering we're already at 13°C to start, high teens definitely appear likely for a high.

    Possibly some leftover cloud tomorrow with highs in the mid teens.

    Some cloud and some sun on Friday with highs in the high teens likely.

    Unfortunately, looks like our above normal trend will begin winding down on the weekend and next week. Bigger cool down possible sometime next week. However, don't see any prolonged and significant cool downs yet so it's not all bad news.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Weak thundershower passed through the city late this morning. Up to 2 thunderstorm days here in south St Vital so far this October!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Should see some sun this afternoon with temperatures reaching high teens likely. Lots of sun tomorrow, but just how warm we will get is a question mark. Under the NAM, we could see our last 20°C day of the year. GEM is not so enthusiastic on that idea.

    We cool down for the weekend with highs in the low teens Saturday and high single digits on Sunday.

    Models then point at a Colorado Low moving into northwestern Ontario early next week. Both GFS and ECMWF are giving us at least some precipitation with this, so we will have to monitor for any westward trends. This system could bring snow as well so definitely will be something to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Tough temperature forecast today with what appears to be US versus Canadian models. EC only expecting 16°C today, similar to the GEM. US models would support the potential for 19-20°C and possibly our last 20°C of the year. It will depend on cloud cover and how quickly the colder air moves in behind the cold front that passes through around midday or early afternoon. So a high anywhere from 16 to 20°C could occur today. It will be quite windy this afternoon though, from the west.

    Lots of sun tomorrow, ASSUMING there's no unexpected low cloud in the colder northwesterly flow. Should reach low teens if the sun is present. System on Sunday with chance for showers in the afternoon and evening. Can't rule out some thunder to our south; don't think the chance is really there or very significant for the Winnipeg area.

    Stronger system moves in for Monday-Wednesday period with consensus that we should see at least some rain. On the backside of the system, can't rule out some light snow but doesn't look like much accumulation so far.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sun has come back and temperatures have skyrocketed to 17°C as of 1 pm as a result. EC raised their forecast to 19°C now. Looks like 20°C still can't be completely ruled out today before the colder air moves in.

      Delete
  13. High 19.3°C as of 2 pm at the airport. If we hit 20°C, it would be the latest 20°C reading since 2007 when we hit 20.1°C on October 25.

    ReplyDelete