Friday, 4 May 2012


     Cloud cover will thicken up throughout the day today. A bit of sun will still poke out of the thin cloud this morning, though it should be cloudier this afternoon. It will be a rainy day in southwestern Manitoba with showers all day. Amounts there could reach 15 mm locally, especially the closer to the Saskatchewan border you are. That rain will try to push into southeastern Manitoba this evening, though it is still a little uncertain just how far east this rain will reach. High pressure in northeastern Manitoba may just be strong enough to keep most of the rain to our northwest, and to our south in North Dakota.

     My forecast is just for a chance of showers this evening and overnight, with little to no accumulation in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. Expect highs around 13 or 14°C in the city today. With a bit of sunshine, we may reach 16 or 17°C Saturday.

     Tomorrow night becomes another tricky forecast. Essentially, the rain could 'split' once again, with the heaviest rain falling in Saskatchewan and way to our south in southern Minnesota. I expect we will still see some showers here in the city, but they will not be very significant with just a few mm possible. As the centre of low pressure moves into the Interlake throughout the day Sunday, showers and even a couple thunderstorms will possible Sunday. Wrap-around rain moves in Monday.

Briefly, here's my current rain forecast for the city of Winnipeg:

Friday evening and overnight ~ 60% chance of showers, little to no accumulation.
Saturday evening through to Sunday morning ~ A few showers, a few mm possible. Uncertainty exists.
Sunday afternoon and evening ~ 60% chance of showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder.
Monday ~ A few showers, a few mm possible.


  1. Got an extra day of nice weather today. 20.2°C is the high at my place this afternoon. Light winds, and a mix of sun and cloud made for great conditions for outdoor activities.

    Tomorrow is still a little uncertain. The possibility that we see next to nothing exists, although I have a feeling we will see a few mm at least. Heaviest rain falls to our south and northwest again.

    Warming trend next week, with a few 20 degree days possible mid week. Thunderstorms already look possible late week with the cold front, though it is way too early for specifics.

  2. Looks like the drier forecast will be the winner for today. After a few showers this morning, things will brighten up this afternoon with sunshine and temperatures in the high teens with light winds. It's hard to believe right now under this thick cloud, but this afternoon looks pleasant once the cloud begins to clear. More cloud looks to move back by evening.

    Tomorrow looks like it will be the wet day with the wrap-around precipitation. A few thundershowers will also be possible overnight tonight into tomorrow with a bit of lift and instability around the centre of low pressure. It's an isolated risk, so most of us likely wont see much in the way of thunder. Perhaps 5 mm in the city tomorrow. Will update before then for you all.

    Warmup begins Tuesday behind this system. It will be a little breezy from the north Tuesday with highs in the mid teens, but Wednesday and Thursday looks fabulous in the low twenties Wednesday and possibly even the mid twenties Thursday. A risk of thunderstorms along the cold front Thursday night will have to be watched. Will update over the next few days.

  3. Skies will begin to clear within the next hour or two in the city. It's mainly sunny in Morden, with a mix of sun and cloud in southwestern Manitoba. Temperatures much more pleasant than here in the cloud, with 17°C in Morden at the moment, 15°C in Portage, 16°C in Emerson and 15°C in Dauphin/Brandon.

    Looking foreward to that clearing!

  4. Make sure you have your umbrella today! Some of these showers will be quite heavy. It will be an on and off type of day, so just when you think the rain has ended, another rain cloud closes in a few minutes later :P Amounts will vary greatly today, thanks to the convective nature and isolated nature of the rain. Anywhere from 2 to 10 mm could fall over southern Manitoba today.

    A few rumbles of thunder and small hail will be possible as well, thanks to cold air aloft, providing instability, and lift from the low pressure system. It will be breezy from the northwest at about 20 to 30 km/h. Only expecting highs between 11 and 13°C in general.

    Showers and cloud will taper off tomorrow morning. Winnipeg should clear out by noon tomorrow, giving way to mainly sunny skies in the afternoon and a breezy north wind around 20 to 30 km/h. Expecting highs around 15 or 16°C in the city.

    As mentioned during the weekend, Wednesday and Thursday will take the cake. Highs around 20 on Wednesday and then highs in the mid twenties Thursday are expected. At this point, looking at the NAM, thunderstorm potential with the cold front Thursday evening/night doesn't look overly impressive just yet, although we will have to wait for a few more updates until details are more certain. Most models are bringing back the warm weather by the weekend after a cooler Friday.

  5. A few lightning strikes being seen along Ontario Border at the moment, so the risk of a few rumbles still exists in south/southeast Manitoba over the next few hours. Nothing significant, although as you have seen already today, heavy downpours of rain are widely scattered across the area, and will continue to be this evening before tapering off overnight.

  6. Skies will clear later this morning or near noon here in the city. It will be nice to see that sunshine again, though we needed that rain yesterday. Got about 4 mm here at my place since midnight yesterday. Expect highs around 16 or 17°C in the city today, 20 to 21°C tomorrow with a mix of sun and cloud.

    Thursday remains uncertain. Depending on cloud cover, we could reach as high as 26 or 27°C, although that could be dropped to 21 or 22°C if we see too much cloud cover. Thunderstorm potential looks minimal Thursday at the moment, even with the cold front.