Today will be perfectly sunny, with perhaps a few clouds at times in the afternoon. Expect highs around 28°C. Tomorrow will be very similar with mainly sunny skies, and highs around 26 or 27°C. Wednesday could be one of the hotter days this week, as a breezy southeast wind pumps in an extra boost of warmth humidity. Our first 30°C of the year will be possible Wednesday.
There may be some showers and storms in southern Manitoba late Wednesday, into Thursday. It does not look like a major event so far, however I will still keep an eye out. Thursday and Friday both look warm as well.
Things get a lot more interesting on the weekend. Many models are hinting at a very strong low pressure system moving into Saskatchewan and the Interlake Sunday. With this, a cold front will slice southwards into the very warm and humid air mass. GFS is showing some significant shear, instability, LI's and a decent llj. All of this raises concern for a severe thunderstorm outbreak Saturday and Sunday. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) in the US already has our areas in a day 6 and day 7 risk. To issue a risk of severe storms this far in advance is rare, especially for our area. This system will need to be monitored very carefully, as a tornado outbreak will be possible on both sides of the border if the current model solutions verify.
I'm not convinced that we will hit 30°C today. That east/northeast wind will likely keep us around 28, similar to yesterday.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks like a cooker. 30°C looks likely, and we could even reach 32 or 33°C if the current model solutions verify. It will be a little humid on top of that.
Thursday remains uncertain for thunderstorms. Models are all over the place, with some bringing in the storms early (tomorrow night), and others late (Thursday night). Wherever the storms end up, there could be some significant rain accumulations as storms hover over the same area for a while. Will keep you all updated.
Most areas of the city hit 30°C today, although both The Forks and the airport did not hit 30.
ReplyDeleteThe risk for storms tomorrow night is looking not too bad at this point. A good light show and heavy rain look likely somewhere in southern Manitoba. Will update tomorrow on a more precise location, as the location is still uncertain today.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the Melita area due to some strong thunderstorms moving north from North Dakota. Some of these storms may produce some large hail (quarter sized), gusty winds and heavy rainfall later this evening, and early overnight.
ReplyDeleteWarm and humid day today with a high of 28 or 29°C expected in Winnipeg, along with dewpoints approaching 20 which will be giving humidex values in the mid thirties.
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorm watches and warnings have been issued in southwestern Manitoba already today. The main threats with the storms today are large hail and excessive rainfall due to the slow moving nature of the storms. Locally, 50 mm will be possible in the heaviest hit areas.
Here in the RRV and east, the best chance for storms will be in the evening and overnight into early morning tomorrow. Again main threat is a lot of rain, frequent lightning and hail.