Monday, 9 January 2012

Another Record-Breaker..

     The balmy-January weather we've been spoiled with continued today throughout southern Manitoba. We have now seen 31 consecutive days above normal here in the 'Peg. Not as many records were broken compared to last Thursday, although some were:

Today’s High
Old Record
Records Began
-3.8 (1983)
4.4 (1986)
5.0 (1958)
7.2 (1958)
3.9 (2006)

     We reached 4.3 C at the airport in Winnipeg today, just shy of the record of 5.6 C in 1958. Many parts of the city reached 5 C today, including 5.5 C here at my station in the south end. The snow pack around the city quickly melted today, with patches of grass visible again here and there in the city. There is little to no snow on the ground still in the western RRV, and areas along the International Border. As a result, those areas managed to reach between 5 and 8 C today. Here are some images and webcam photos of the lack of snow cover over much of the Prairies, VERY unusual for this time of year...
St. Vital

Visible Satellite 1 PM Jan 9

     Temperatures have been dropping steadily this evening thanks to clear skies, although they should begin to stabilize and even rebound by mid evening as cloud cover starts moving in. It is now cloudy in Dauphin, which has allowed temperatures to rebound by 3 C in the past hour.
     Tomorrow of course will be our last warm day for a while. It's a little tough determining just how warm it will get. Cloud cover may limit our temperature climb somewhat, although 925 mb temperatures near 1 to 4 C and a breezy westerly flow will allow for above zero temperatures for the 7th day this month! I believe Winnipeg has a good shot at 2 or 3 C tomorrow, while the western RRV, and near the International Border in the southern RRV may reach between 4 and 6 C. Have to wait and see if we can get a good amount of sunshine, or else those temperatures could be a degree or two cooler if we stay cloudy.
     UPDATE (Jan 10/7:45 AM): With 925 mb temperatures now expected to be between 6 and 10 C today, I'm expecting a high of 5 or 6 C in Winnipeg today, and 7 to 9 C in western RRV. It looks like a mix of sun and cloud today, rather than all-out cloudy.
     We could still see some flurries tomorrow night and Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. I don't see any major accumulations, with perhaps one or two cm at most. The big story will be the cold, with falling temperatures Wednesday. Temperatures by late afternoon could be as low as -15 to -18, so bundle up! Winds will be strong from the northwest 40 to 60, so windchills will be a lot lower than we've been accustomed to. Thursday will be downright frigid. At this point, models are pointing at morning lows in the mid minus twenties, with highs between -17 and -20. BRRR! But quite frankly, that's only just closer to normal!....
Stay tuned for the latest updates...


  1. New NAM is showing a bubble of 925 mb temperatures of up to 7-10 C tomorrow early afternoon in southern Manitoba. If that is true, we could see highs a couple degrees warmer than today's. Although, I am skeptical at this point about that as it appears there will be a lot more cloud cover than there was today as a system approaches. Things will be a lot clearer by morning, and I plan to give an update in the morning..

  2. NAM still insisting on 925 mb temperatures between 6 and 10 in southern Manitoba today. In fact, it has already risen to 9 or 10 C this morning (see < >). It doesn't appear like it will be an all-out cloudy day, so I'm raising my forecast for today. I'm saying 5 or 6 C in Winnipeg, and once again 7 to 9 in western RRV. Similar to yesterday, although perhaps a degree or two warmer in some areas.
    It is already +4 in Portage, and +1 in WPG at 7 AM, so a good start.. Truely amazing, another day for biking in January! It will be a little windier than yesterday, winds 20-30 km/h today from the west.

  3. Record today in the city is 5.1 in 1990, I think we got a good shot at breaking that record. Could be another record breaker in the south today before temperatures really cool tomorrow.
    Looks like we'll start getting some snow, or rain this evening, and just plain snow by overnight. Blowing snow definitely possible with strong NW winds. Perhaps a quick 1 or 2 cm with that snow. As soon as the snow ends, it will begin to cool drastically by morning...

  4. 5 C in the city early this afternoon before thicker cloud rolled in and lowered our temperature slightly. +8 in McCreary, +7 in Emerson in today.
    Tonight, I'm still leaning towards 1 or 2 cm for the 'Peg, while closer to 5 cm near the US and Ontario borders. With strong NW winds 40/60 or even 50/70 km/h, blowing snow will be an issue. It will be a big wake-up call for sure, with temperatures plummeting to about -15 by morning.