Saturday, 21 January 2012

Mild with some snow

     Well, we survived winter's first blast of cold! Westerly to south westerly winds Thursday and Friday morning prevented us from reaching -30 C around the city of WPG, thanks to its downslope effects. Although, you did not have to go far to find -30 C. Areas in the eastern RRV weren't as lucky. It got down to -33.4 C in Gimli, and -32.5 C in Sprague Thursday morning. Areas to our west in Saskatchewan and Alberta were not as lucky, with lows well into the -30 s in many areas.
     Here is a map showing the coldest temperatures reached during the arctic spell:

    This really was not a bad arctic blast considering how cold it can get here in some years. We came out lucky. How can we be called Winterpeg if we can't hit -30 C even once!! Not that that is necessarily a bad thing :P
    Now to the forecast:
    Today, looks like periods of snow for much of the day, tapering off late afternoon. Perhaps 1-3 cm at most, so it is an insignificant event. Temperatures have warmed after a low of -24 or -25 C overnight, and that trend continues. It will rise closer to our normal high of -13 C today, and will continue to rise until tomorrow.
     Temperatures will rise overnight tonight, and tomorrow we should be in the mid minus single digits. Although, some snow will likely accompany the milder temperatures. Unfortunately, there still lies some uncertainty at the moment into just how much snow we will see tomorrow. There is a variety of solutions given by the models.
     The NAM gives much of southern Manitoba snow tomorrow, with significant accumulations (5-15 cm) over the south east, including WPG.
     The GFS gives only the extreme south east tip of MB some heavy snow. A narrow band, which would just graze the city of WPG.
     The GLB keeps the whole system to our south, with a bit of snow (1-2 cm) associated with an inverted trough attached to the system.

     What do I expect? I'm leaning towards a 5-10 cm event for the south east of MB, and 2-5 cm for Winnipeg, associated with an inverted trough, although I will wait until tonight to give a more in depth opinion, and perhaps a new post to show it.
     After tomorrow though, a brief cool down Monday, back to near normal values, if not even a little bit above, with a warmer second-half of next week.


  1. Still very uncertain on amounts tomorrow, but the agreement is coming that the bulk of the snow will likely be to our south and east. For Winnipeg it is hard to say though, as we will likely be right on the edge of that narrow band. Although, with the inverted trough, anything can happen. Those troughs often give us some of our most unexpected heavy snowfalls. As a ballpark guess, I'm saying 2-5 cm for the city tomorrow and 5-15 cm just to our SE, although that is not my final forecast. I will give my full prediction sometime tonight.

  2. Measured about 1.5 cm of snow with today's snowfall. A little hard to measure today since it was blowing around.