Sunday, 8 January 2012

January Warm Spell Continues.... For Now

     So far, you wouldn't know it was January out there in Manitoba, and much of southern Canada. And it looks likely we will continue to see very above normal temperatures here in southern Manitoba until at least Tuesday. In fact, tomorrow we could come close to record-breaking warmth in some areas. It looks like we will have a favourable westerly flow tomorrow, taking advantage of downsloping for the RRV. It won't be a very strong wind, although it may just be enough. NAM is showing 925 mb temperatures between 3 and 5 C around Winnipeg, and 6 to 8 C in western RRV and southwest Manitoba. Not as high as they were back on Thursday.
     As a result, I don't expect to see temperatures as high as last Thursday, although we will still come close to records. I think Winnipeg has a pretty good chance at a high of 4 or 5 C, while western RRV could get temperatures as high as 7 or 8 C especially in non-snow covered areas. Winnipeg's record tomorrow is 5.6 C in 1958, I don't think we will break that record, but we may come close.
     Tomorrow night will definitely be very mild. Lows look to be between -2 and 0 C. And that will start off our last ultra-warm day. Highs should be generally around 1 C, while perhaps a couple degrees milder in western RRV.

     It's Tuesday night that things start to turn around. After some light snow or showers Tuesday evening switching over to light snow overnight, temperatures will begin to take a dive. I don't see any major accumulation from that snow, perhaps 1-3 cm at worst. Temperatures will actually fall during the day on Wednesday with strong northwest winds 40 gusting to 60 km/h. Just how far the temperatures will drop is up to debate at this point. Definitely into the minus teens. Will be a rude wake-up call for sure. It does appear as though temperatures will stay closer to normal from then on. I don't see any deep frigid arctic air though at this point ( -30s/-40s )  so if you don't like brutal cold, that's good news. Although, there lies great uncertainty at this point. The AO is starting to slip towards negative, but that could change...
Average high around this time of year is near -13, while normal low is near -23.
Stay tuned....


  1. Temperatures have been staying above zero, and even rising slightly this evening. Currently +1.1 C at my station in south end. Most likely due to a strong SSW flow 30 km/h gusting over 40, as well as cloud cover.
    Looks like our chance of flurries/showers has moved off for this evening as well, and skies should clear by mid evening, but that does not mean our temperatures will take a dive! Lows tonight will be between -2 and 0.

  2. Already 4.5 C in Portage, and 6.3 C in McCreary as of noon. As expected, the western RRV is benefitting from lack of snow pack, as well as downsloping winds from the west.
    Currently 'only' 1 C in Winnipeg, likely due to our snow pack. Altough, my station here in south end is reporting +4 at the moment.
    Enjoy it now, before it's gone!

  3. I'm happy with what I had predicted for today. Winnipeg generally got to 4 or 5 C today, depending on your location. It got to 5.5 C here at my station.
    And in the western RRV, highs are generally 6 to 8 C, just as I had expected.
    The highest I have seen so far is 9 C in Melita.
    I will have a summary of this warmth later tonight.