Monday, 30 January 2012

Mild 'n' 'snowy'?

     The incredibly mild winter weather we experienced in early January has returned to put a close on the likely 2nd or 3rd mildest January on record in the city (wont know until Wednesday if it's 2nd or 3rd). Everyday this week will likely feature highs near zero, and overnight lows likely wont even reach -10 C for a while.
     This milder weather comes with a small price to pay though. Already, some snow has fallen with a clipper system overnight. A general 1 or 2 cm seems to have fallen over the city, not much. It is a little difficult to measure the snow this morning, thanks to strong winds which blew the snow around.
     Although, we are not done with snow just yet. Yet another clipper system following close behind is set to track through southern Manitoba tonight. Some widely scattered flurries have already moved into south western Manitoba this morning. Therefore, some flurries may begin in the WPG area by late afternoon. The bulk of the snow will move through late evening and overnight. Models have been bouncing around with amounts lately, so it is still hard to tell just how much snow we will see. Models are ranging anywhere from 0 to 10 cm. Personally, I'll go in between, and say about 3-4 cm for WPG, although confidence in that is pretty low.
Frz rain and ice pellets possible - GEM for mid/late evening
     The forecast becomes even more complicated when we start adding in the potential for freezing rain and ice pellets. We may enter into a brief period of frz rain and ice pellets in the city this evening. At this point, it appears most of the frz rain will fall south of the Trans-Canada, with areas near the US Border potentially getting a few hours of frz rain. Any frz rain that does fall will significantly reduce the amount of snow we receive. Things will be clearer by evening.
     Models have been handling these systems very poorly this winter, not pinpointing what will actually happen until a few hours before the snow starts. This has made forecasting these systems very difficult.

     In the long-range, at this point it appears this mild weather will continue for at least another week. Next week becomes a little more uncertain, with some models indicating a significant cool down. The CPC still shows temperatures well above normal for the next 2 weeks though, so we will have to wait and see at this point. It is too early to pinpoint exactly when we will cool down. There likely wont be any significant snow in the next week at least neither, other than some snow tonight.
CPC 6-10 day outlook for temperatures


  1. Some light flurries have begun in the city just before 4 pm, although nothing major. This system is a little more understood, although not 100%.

    It certainly appears most of the precipitation will move around the city of WPG, with heavier amounts to our north and east. The main area of precipitation at the moment is moving to our north, while WPG will likely be scraped by this area of precip. this evening with locally heavy snow at times. Frz rain and ice pellets are possible briefly, although it appears most of it will be snow in the city, perhaps 1-3 cm.

    Frz rain and ice pellets are a more major issue in south central and southwestern Manitoba. EC has issued frz rain warnings this afternoon, so several hours of frz rain is not out of the question west of the city. Frz rain has already been reported in many areas, and conditions should begin to improve later in the evening, and overnight in southeast MB. Careful on those roads!

  2. Only a trace of snow here in south end so far. All I've seen so far is a few snowflakes. All the snow is staying to the north while frz rain and flurries just to our south, with south end of city squeazed between these two areas. It is staying as snow in WPG so far though, and it does not look like we'll much frz rain, if any at all. A secondary band of snow will push through this evening on the back edge of this system, and that will likely bring most areas some snow, perhaps 1 or 2 cm.

    Highways are quite slick, especially north and west of the city. Here is a link below for Manitoba Highway conditions. I will also include this link in my list of links on the right hand side of this page.

  3. Measured 1.0 cm of snow so far here in south end this evening. Perhaps a couple more hours of light snow before things begin to improve.

  4. Storm total here in south end is about 2 cm, with a little more in Charleswood reported (3 cm). Thankfully this snowfall was much easier to measure, as there was less blowing around.

    The snow depth today is about 10 cm, which is the lowest snow depth on January 31 since 1999 and 2000. Just how extreme has this January been? I'm preparing my first monthly summary, and plan to have it posted either tomorrow or Thursday afternoon.

    Sun came out late this morning and to start the afternoon, although don't let it fool you! Cloud cover has already begun to move in early this afternoon, which will likely stick around for much of the remainder of the day. A couple flurries are possible, though not highly likely.

    Note the temperature at the airport at 1 pm, of -5 C. That temperature is not very representative of the temperature within city limits. We're now in the time of year where on sunny, light wind days like today, it is much warmer in the city than outside the city over open fields. Snow covered fields just reflect the sun back into space, as opposed to inside the city.
    As a result, it is actually closer to -1 C within the city early this afternoon.

  5. With lots of surface moisture and light winds, fog is definitely a possibility throughout southern Manitoba tonight and tomorrow morning, so just keep that in mind if you have to do any travelling, as the risk is there.

  6. Again with lots of moisture and light winds, fog likely will be a problem once again in southern Manitoba. In fact, fog has already started to develop, including in the city of WPG. Fog is especially thick near the airport with visibility of only 200 metres reported at 9 pm. Hoar frost will likely be seen again in the morning.. What a beautiful sight it was this morning when skies cleared! Tomorrow may be similar.
    Fog is also possible again tomorrow night.

    As for my monthly summary for January, I did not get the time to finish it today with some projects due tomorrow, I've barely been home at all today. I will have it finished by tomorrow afternoon though, sorry for the delay :( My monthly summaries will be in the ''monthly summaries'' tab at the top of the page ^ .

  7. Wow awesome hoar frost again this morning :D

    I went out and took some pictures of the hoar frost this morning, you can view them in the ''Photos'' tab at the top of the page ^ .

  8. Finished the first monthly summary of this blog :)
    You can access it at the top of the page in the ''Monthly Summaries'' tab. There are still a few links I have to add, but the information is done

  9. For the third night in a row, fog will plague southern Manitoba. Fog has already begun to form locally, and will continue to thicken this evening. Hoar frost will likely be around once again in the morning, so if you missed the beautiful sights, you've got yet another chance tomorrow morning :)

    Our stagnant airmass, light winds and high moisture is to blame for all this fog. Expect these foggy nights to continue until we get a more significant change in the weather pattern in our area, with strong winds to dry out our airmass. Moisture is just trapped in our area.