Saturday, 21 January 2012

Sunday Snowfall Forecast

     A low developing in Wyoming will be moving through the Dakotas into Minnesota and Ontario tomorrow into Monday. An inverted trough will extend to the north of the system into Manitoba. At the moment, I am definitely leaning towards a more southern solution, with the bulk of the snow staying to the east and south of WPG. Although, we may still see some snow, thanks to the inverted trough. Speaking of the trough, that is why this forecast becomes so complex. Inverted troughs are notorious for unexpected heavy snowfalls in our area.
     That being said, my prediction for southern Manitoba is as follows:
Snowfall totals from midnight tonight to Monday morning

     I expect about 2-5 cm in Winnipeg, although that is a ball-park estimate. We may get even more than that if more snow develops along the inverted trough than expected, which is what these troughs are notorious for. Perhaps less if the trough doesn't produce much, which is what I am leaning towards.
     What I'm pretty certain is that much of the real system snow will stay to our south and east, in a narrow band grazing south eastern Manitoba. That is why areas just to our south east will likely see higher accumulations of 5-10 cm.
     It's a tough forecast tomorrow though, as it could be a situation of 5 cm in one location, and not even a flake 50 km away. Then again, the inverted trough could produce more snow than expected. We're just going to have wait for tomorrow morning to see just how things really will play out.


  1. The 10-15 cm that the NAM was advertising this morning is long-gone now. The NAM has flip-flopped back to almost no snow at all in WPG, while perhaps 5 cm in extreme SE MB.

  2. A brief period of frz rain or ice pellets is also possible in SW MB with this system, although it should not be a major problem.

  3. The system snow is staying WELL to the south in the US, completely missing Manitoba, which I'm not surprised at all. It does change my snowfall forecast though.

    Hope isn't lost for snow just yet though, there is still the inverted trough around. Some snow could develop along the trough this afternoon and evening, giving a few cm if it does. Otherwise, this storm is a complete write-off for everyone.

  4. On another note, after a cool down tomorrow back to normal, things will be warming up nicely. Wednesday appears to be very mild at this point, possibly getting above zero once again =) With 925 mb temps currently forecast to be slightly above zero, and winds from the SW or W, above zero highs are certainly a possibility. Beyond that, I don't see any significant cool down anytime in the near future, with just very brief pushes of cold air.

  5. The forecast for today was a complete bust. The models handled today extremely poorly. It is an extreme bust considering that just yesterday, some models were showing 10-20 cm in south east Manitoba for today, while today it has completely switched to almost nothing. Absolutely nothing here in the city so far today, although I am still holding on the possilibity for some light snow this evening. Hopefully that part of the forecast goes right at least!

  6. Wow didn't even get a snowflake here in south end yesterday! 0.0
    Yesterday was truely a reminder not to always trust what the models are showing, and to not be afraid to sometimes go against what the models are showing if what they are showing seems fishy.

    I have created Winnipeg Weather's first weather poll! Feel free to vote for what you think the city of Winnipeg will reach on Wednesday, our next ultra-warm day!

  7. Another mystery in the weather pattern is setting up. The AO has switched to well-below zero, and that coupled with La Nina, you'd think we would be seeing brutally cold weather especially at this time of year. Rather, models are showing that temperatures will remain near or even well-above normal for the at least the next 2 weeks. There may be several occasions in the next 2 weeks for temperatures above zero as well..

    This is truely one of the strangest winters, a winter that just keeps on making us wonder...