Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Our Odd Winter Gets More Odd

     Thanks to a breezy southerly flow we will not drop very low tonight, with a low near -10 or -11 C. Tomorrow will be our next ultra-warm day, with temperatures likely to surpass the freezing mark for the 8th day this month. This will be thanks to 925 mb temperatures between 2 and 5 C and strong winds from the south. We may come close to breaking records tomorrow across southern Manitoba as well. Winnipeg's record is 3.3 C set back in 1942. Personally, I don't think we will break that record tomorrow, although we will be close.
     If winds were to be from a more favourable SW or W direction, and there were to be more sun, tomorrow definitely would have been a widespread record day.
     It will be a little difficult to enjoy the warmth tomorrow however, thanks to very strong south winds which could gust over 50 or 60 km/h. In addition, there will be considerable cloudiness with the chance of some showers, freezing rain and flurries. Not much accumulation is expected though.
     Tomorrow night will be a very mild night, with lows only in the minus single digits ( around -3  to -5 C).

     Beyond that, the good news is that there is no sign of a prolonged cold spell anytime for AT LEAST the next 2 weeks... Temperatures over the next 2 weeks will be generally above normal or near normal, thanks to a return to a more SW or W flow of Pacific air. Cold spells will be very brief, lasting only a day or two, and will not be as overly severe as last week. There may be several occasions in the next while for above zero temperatures!
     This prolonged warm-spell coming up is definitely adding to this strange winter we're having. The AO has just recently plummeted into the negative which would typically mean cold arctic air would spill down more easily. When you mix a strongly-negative AO and La Nina, you'd think we would be seeing brutally cold temperatures, especially at this time of year, though that will not be the case.
IMAGE UPDATES (Jan 26 5:55 PM):
CPC 6-10 day temperature anomaly outlook
CPC 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook

     The switch to a negative AO though may suggest we may switch to a colder-snowier pattern to end the winter, though there are no guarantees on that at this point.


  1. This January is on the road to being among the 5 warmest Januarys on record, since records began in 1873. This will also mark the 7th consecutive month above normal; you'd think we'd break this pattern soon...

  2. Precipitation completely bipassing the RRV today, and that will likely be the case tonight again, so expect little to no precipitation over the next 24 hours. Just the odd flurry possible over the next few days.

    Those winds are certainly making it feel a lot cooler out there than it is really. Near the freezing mark, but you wouldn't know it if you stepped outside.

  3. Brett Anderson wrote up a good summary of the upcoming 2 weeks on his AccuWeather Blog. Here is the link:


    Looks like our warm and snow-free winter continues for a while yet... =)

  4. Some records were broken in south western Manitoba today, with temperatures well above zero. Truely amazing..

    AWCN11 CWWG 252311
    Summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 5:11 PM CST
    Wednesday 25 January 2012.

    Mild Pacific air moved in over the eastern prairies
    Today. As a result, there were a few temperature records broken. The
    new unofficial records established in Manitoba are as follows:

    New old record records
    Location record record year began
    Brandon 3.6 3.3 1903 1890
    Fisher Branch -0.2 -2.7 2011 1978
    Melita 6.8 3.1 2006 1993

    Temperatures will likely stay above normal, albeit not likely
    record-breaking, through the weekend.


  5. This winter is truely amazing, and one of a kind. It's very interesting to consider that no major pushes of arctic air will force itself into our area for the first half of February. If that is true, our chances of entering into an extended period of extreme cold significantly diminishes as we approach March. It's very unprecedented to not go through a whole winter without a major snowstorm, or hitting -30 C.

    Since 1872, only one winter (1930/31) never saw the mercury drop to -30 C, just to show how extreme it would be. There is still a good month and a half or 2 months left of winter, so I wont say we wont hit -30 C just yet.

  6. Managed to squeeze in another spectacular day today. It is a little breezy, although definitely not as windy as yesterday. Full-on sunshine though, allowing our temperatures to rise above zero today. +1 at WPG airport so far, +3 here at my place in south end. +1 in Brandon and +3 in Melita as well.

  7. I have now included a section for Manitoba weather photos on this blog. If you have any Manitoba weather photos you'd wish to share, please send them to < Manitobaweather@gmail.com >. I will be sure to include the name/source of any photo sent, as well as the location, unless the sender would rather want to be known as 'anonymous' that is fine. I especially hope to see thunderstorm photos =) I will certainly include photos in my posts as well if the sender allows it.
    Thank you

  8. Sunday night appears to be our next chance for some measurable snow with a clipper system. At this point, it appears it could be a good snowfall with a quick 2-5 cm likely in 6-9 hours. Stay tuned for the latest updates on this upcoming system as I give updates throughout the weekend..

  9. Sunday night still looks snowy, although Tuesday as well. This could change, although current indications are that we could possibly see 5-10 cm total with both systems. That is how it looks at this point, tomorrow it will become a bit more clear.

  10. The forecast for the next couple days is a little tricky. Personally I am leaning towards actually getting some good accumulations in the WPG area. That would mean about 2-5 cm of snow tonight, along with an additional 2-5 cm tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.
    Tonight, it's pretty much a guarantee at this point there will be snow, basically most models indicate that. Winds will likely be breezy unfortunately, so blowing and drifting snow will likely be a bit of an issue as well.
    Tomorrow night and Tuesday morning, temperatures will be just barely below zero. That's where the forecast becomes a little complicated, as there could be a period of freezing rain before precipitation switches over to snow. If we do get frz rain, snowfall accumulations would likely be a little lower.

  11. Some models indicate a major cool down by mid February after a very mild start to the month. It is a little too early to draw to conclusions at this point though. Thing is, the AO has plummeted to significantly negative values today. Basically, the incredibly positive AO we had in December is now equally incredibly negative today.

  12. Risk for snow has diminished for WPG, I'm not surprised to see that at all considering that is story of this winter. Looks like the bulk of the snow will move through southwest MB into North Dakota, meaning we will likely just be brushed by the area of snow. We may see 1 or 2 cm here in the city tonight, although maybe even less possible.

    Tomorrow night is still unknown in the models. The NAM still shows singificant accumulations of 5-10 cm, although I would not be surprised personally if that changes by tomorrow to much lower amounts. At the moment I'm saying about 2-3 cm tomorrow ngiht in the city, but I would not be surprised if that dropped.